Value
8.2/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
- ▸Attractively valued
LBTYK · Why this verdict
Why Liberty Global (LBTYK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liberty Global (this share class) holds a relatively constructive technical footing—above the 200-day moving average with accumulating volume—yet the combination of negative free cash flow equivalent to approximately 14% of revenue, a quality floor breach, and a price geometry leaving only 3.4% of upside against 6.2% of downside makes the current entry unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business falls below the minimum acceptable quality level, with free cash flow negative at approximately 14% of revenue, no competitive moat, and a combined growth-plus-profitability measure deeply negative at negative 5—indicating the business does not currently self-fund its own growth. Warnings | Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive and the combined growth-plus-profitability measure turns positive within the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski score of approximately 6.7 out of 9 indicates balance-sheet health is not deteriorating across most dimensions; the quality floor breach may reflect a discrete investment phase rather than permanent impairment. | ||
With only approximately 3.4% of headroom to the near-term resistance ceiling and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.55-to-1—with downside measuring approximately 6.2%—the current price geometry offers insufficient compensation for the business and technical risks present. Price targets | Price retraces to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% from the prevailing price, restoring an asymmetric setup. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock sits near its 52-week high, which can act as a self-fulfilling momentum signal; a break above current resistance could render the 3.4% gap a launchpad rather than a ceiling. | ||
Despite the unfavorable price geometry, the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume—a constructive technical setup suggesting underlying demand is accumulating even as the stock approaches resistance. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume continues to rise and price holds above the 200-day moving average for the next two quarters, providing a technical floor beneath the current price. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum above the 200-day moving average combined with a price near resistance and minimal upside headroom frequently precedes a period of consolidation or shallow correction before any sustained next leg. | ||
A recent officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory filing introduces governance uncertainty—leadership transitions can signal strategic pivots, cost-cutting cycles, or shifts in capital allocation that are difficult to assess before the successor's priorities become clear. Gates warning | Zero additional C-suite departures are announced over the next 2 consecutive quarters, indicating governance has stabilized. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single officer change is not inherently negative; a new appointment could bring improved capital-allocation discipline or shareholder-friendly policies that enhance financial quality over time. | ||
The business falls below the minimum acceptable quality level, with free cash flow negative at approximately 14% of revenue, no competitive moat, and a combined growth-plus-profitability measure deeply negative at negative 5—indicating the business does not currently self-fund its own growth.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive and the combined growth-plus-profitability measure turns positive within the next four quarters.
CounterA Piotroski score of approximately 6.7 out of 9 indicates balance-sheet health is not deteriorating across most dimensions; the quality floor breach may reflect a discrete investment phase rather than permanent impairment.
With only approximately 3.4% of headroom to the near-term resistance ceiling and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 0.55-to-1—with downside measuring approximately 6.2%—the current price geometry offers insufficient compensation for the business and technical risks present.
Tripped↑ImprovingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Price retraces to a level where upside to the take-profit target exceeds 10% from the prevailing price, restoring an asymmetric setup.
CounterThe stock sits near its 52-week high, which can act as a self-fulfilling momentum signal; a break above current resistance could render the 3.4% gap a launchpad rather than a ceiling.
Despite the unfavorable price geometry, the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume—a constructive technical setup suggesting underlying demand is accumulating even as the stock approaches resistance.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume continues to rise and price holds above the 200-day moving average for the next two quarters, providing a technical floor beneath the current price.
CounterMomentum above the 200-day moving average combined with a price near resistance and minimal upside headroom frequently precedes a period of consolidation or shallow correction before any sustained next leg.
A recent officer departure or appointment flagged in a regulatory filing introduces governance uncertainty—leadership transitions can signal strategic pivots, cost-cutting cycles, or shifts in capital allocation that are difficult to assess before the successor's priorities become clear.
↓DeterioratingGates warning
- Expectation
- Zero additional C-suite departures are announced over the next 2 consecutive quarters, indicating governance has stabilized.
CounterA single officer change is not inherently negative; a new appointment could bring improved capital-allocation discipline or shareholder-friendly policies that enhance financial quality over time.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 9.4 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -10% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -18 (fail)
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 2.8 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 5.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.50
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Technical at 5.4, and Sentiment at 5.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Quality at 2.6, and Peer rank at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Structural Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue turns positive (above 0%) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Upside Exhausted Near ResistanceTripped
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit target rises above 10% from the prevailing price.
- P3Positive Momentum Above 200ma
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Officer Departure Governance Uncertainty
Trip ifFewer than 1 additional C-suite departures are disclosed in regulatory filings over 2 consecutive quarters, confirming leadership has stabilized.