Value
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 54.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.42
KTOS · Why this verdict
Why Kratos Defense & Security Solut (KTOS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -363% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 93%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $12,745,139 (0.116% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.90
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.23
Upside
+73.9%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.1, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, and Insider at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.