Value
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 56.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
KRNT · Why this verdict
Why Kornit Digital (KRNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality composite score of 2.3 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by weak margins and no competitive moat. Warnings | Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 suggests underlying balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the margin-driven quality score implies. | ||
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 3.44, with modeled upside of 27.3% against downside of 7.9%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should stay above 2.0 and modeled upside should remain above 15% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA small-cap stock below institutional reach can see its modeled asymmetry swing quickly on light trading volume or a single analyst target revision. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 111.7%. Earnings | Beat rate should stay at 3 of 4 or better and average surprise should remain positive over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats against very small estimate bases (fractions of a cent) can produce outsized percentage surprises that overstate the real magnitude of earnings improvement. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 57.0x, though its PEG ratio of 0.33 is flagged as attractively valued relative to its growth rate. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should compress below 40x or PEG should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months if the growth-adjusted valuation thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E this high leaves little room for error, and any slowdown in earnings growth could trigger a sharp multiple re-rating lower. | ||
Insiders sold a net $204,846 (0.028% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal. | ||
The quality composite score of 2.3 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by weak margins and no competitive moat.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 6.7 out of 9 suggests underlying balance-sheet fundamentals are healthier than the margin-driven quality score implies.
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 3.44, with modeled upside of 27.3% against downside of 7.9%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay above 2.0 and modeled upside should remain above 15% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds.
CounterA small-cap stock below institutional reach can see its modeled asymmetry swing quickly on light trading volume or a single analyst target revision.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 111.7%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate should stay at 3 of 4 or better and average surprise should remain positive over the next four reported quarters.
CounterBeats against very small estimate bases (fractions of a cent) can produce outsized percentage surprises that overstate the real magnitude of earnings improvement.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 57.0x, though its PEG ratio of 0.33 is flagged as attractively valued relative to its growth rate.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should compress below 40x or PEG should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months if the growth-adjusted valuation thesis holds.
CounterA forward P/E this high leaves little room for error, and any slowdown in earnings growth could trigger a sharp multiple re-rating lower.
Insiders sold a net $204,846 (0.028% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive.
CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kornit Digital shows a favorable modeled asymmetry with 27.3% upside against 7.9% downside and a run of 3 consecutive earnings beats, but quality sits below the engine's floor, the stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 57.0x, and modest insider selling has produced a bearish signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 52%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $204,846 (0.029% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 1.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.2 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.83
- ▸High IV: 98%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.52
Upside
+29.3%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.73>1.3, MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Quality at 2.7, and Insider at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 1.0, further below the 4.0 floor.
- P2Favorable Asymmetry Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.5, reversing the currently passed 3.44 reading.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current beat streak.
- P4Rich Forward Pe Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 70x, up from the current 57.0x.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $500,000 over a 90-day period, up from the current $204,846.