Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸Attractively valued
KOP · Why this verdict
Why Koppers Holdings (KOP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -6.2% of downside versus the modeled fair value, with the V9 panel flagging a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.5. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.0, over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum (7.6 versus the 5.5 threshold) and a continuing earnings beat streak could justify an upward revision to the analyst target before the stock needs to correct. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 16.5%. Bull case | Beat rate should stay at 3 of 4 or better and average surprise should remain positive over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single miss in the streak occurred in the most recent comparable prior-year quarter, and a slowing surprise trend (from 51.3% down to lower magnitudes) could signal the beat streak is decelerating. | ||
The analysis applies a leverage penalty of -1.0 point for a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.9. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline toward 1.2 or below over the next 12 months for the leverage penalty to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio of 9.1 and excellent cash conversion of 170% FCF/NI suggest the balance sheet has ample near-term liquidity to service the leverage. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 71, rising on-balance volume, and trading above its 200-day moving average, with the momentum gate passing at 7.6 against the 5.5 threshold. Momentum breakdown | RSI should stay above 50 and momentum score should remain above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the strength persists. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI this elevated near a 52-week high increases the risk of a near-term pullback as the rally becomes overextended. | ||
Insiders sold a net $434,116 (0.049% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal. | ||
The stock has already reached its V8 analyst target, implying -6.2% of downside versus the modeled fair value, with the V9 panel flagging a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.5.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.0, over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid.
CounterStrong momentum (7.6 versus the 5.5 threshold) and a continuing earnings beat streak could justify an upward revision to the analyst target before the stock needs to correct.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 16.5%.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Beat rate should stay at 3 of 4 or better and average surprise should remain positive over the next four reported quarters.
CounterThe single miss in the streak occurred in the most recent comparable prior-year quarter, and a slowing surprise trend (from 51.3% down to lower magnitudes) could signal the beat streak is decelerating.
The analysis applies a leverage penalty of -1.0 point for a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.9.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline toward 1.2 or below over the next 12 months for the leverage penalty to ease.
CounterA current ratio of 9.1 and excellent cash conversion of 170% FCF/NI suggest the balance sheet has ample near-term liquidity to service the leverage.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 71, rising on-balance volume, and trading above its 200-day moving average, with the momentum gate passing at 7.6 against the 5.5 threshold.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should stay above 50 and momentum score should remain above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the strength persists.
CounterAn RSI this elevated near a 52-week high increases the risk of a near-term pullback as the rally becomes overextended.
Insiders sold a net $434,116 (0.049% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive.
CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Koppers Holdings has strung together 3 of 4 earnings beats with strong momentum, but the stock has already reached its analyst target near its 52-week high with a negative asymmetry ratio, a leverage penalty for its 1.9x debt-to-equity ratio, and bearish insider selling, prompting a note to consider reducing the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 170% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $434,116 (0.048% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-8.5%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.61 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Momentum at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.4, Insider at 3.8, and Technical at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below -2.0, worse than the current -0.51.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current beat streak.
- P3Leverage Penalty Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 3.0, worse than the current 1.9x driving the leverage penalty.
- P4Overbought Momentum Strength
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current overbought reading of 71.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $1,000,000 over a 90-day period, up from the current $434,116.