Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸Attractively valued
KOP · Why this verdict
Why Koppers Holdings (KOP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Koppers is a cheap (forward P/E 8.2x) specialty chemicals maker on a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak with 20.6% upside to the analyst target, but it is deeply oversold (RSI 16), has heavy insider selling and below-par quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price is deeply oversold with RSI at 16 and falling OBV, though the 200-day average is still rising 6.5% over 30 days, so the drop looks like a pullback in an uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 and price should reclaim the 200-day average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV and a momentum score of 2.4/10 show persistent selling; an oversold reading can persist and capitulation may not be complete. | ||
Koppers beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 22.7%, including $1.37 against $1.10 in August 2026. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates and exceed $1.20 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats in 2025 and 2024 were mixed with three misses in eight quarters, so the streak may reflect low bars rather than durable momentum. | ||
Forward P/E is 8.2x and the $48.45 analyst target implies 20.6% upside from $40.18 versus 6.7% downside to the $38.13 stop. Valuation breakdown | Price should move toward the $48.45 analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples reflect a cyclical business with no moat; the stock may be cheap for good reason and the target may be optimistic. | ||
Insiders sold $4.86M of stock across 7 transactions in 90 days (0.639% of market cap) with no purchases. Insider | Insider selling should slow and net purchases should appear over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling may be tied to routine compensation and diversification, and 0.639% of market cap is modest in absolute terms. | ||
Quality scores 3.3/10 with no competitive moat and zero ROE and net margin, and 100% of one supplier input (CMC creosote, internal) is concentrated. Bear case | Net margin should turn positive and the quality score should rise above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe creosote supply is internal rather than a third-party risk, and revenue of $520M in the June 2026 quarter shows a rebound from $433M. | ||
Price is deeply oversold with RSI at 16 and falling OBV, though the 200-day average is still rising 6.5% over 30 days, so the drop looks like a pullback in an uptrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and price should reclaim the 200-day average within 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV and a momentum score of 2.4/10 show persistent selling; an oversold reading can persist and capitulation may not be complete.
Koppers beat EPS estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 22.7%, including $1.37 against $1.10 in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates and exceed $1.20 over the next 12 months.
CounterBeats in 2025 and 2024 were mixed with three misses in eight quarters, so the streak may reflect low bars rather than durable momentum.
Forward P/E is 8.2x and the $48.45 analyst target implies 20.6% upside from $40.18 versus 6.7% downside to the $38.13 stop.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $48.45 analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap multiples reflect a cyclical business with no moat; the stock may be cheap for good reason and the target may be optimistic.
Insiders sold $4.86M of stock across 7 transactions in 90 days (0.639% of market cap) with no purchases.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should slow and net purchases should appear over the next 12 months.
CounterSelling may be tied to routine compensation and diversification, and 0.639% of market cap is modest in absolute terms.
Quality scores 3.3/10 with no competitive moat and zero ROE and net margin, and 100% of one supplier input (CMC creosote, internal) is concentrated.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Net margin should turn positive and the quality score should rise above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterThe creosote supply is internal rather than a third-party risk, and revenue of $520M in the June 2026 quarter shows a rebound from $433M.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.5 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.9 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $4,857,572 (0.610% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:2.3>=1.5
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- INSIDER:0.61%=EXTREME
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.30
Upside
+15.1%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.7
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of 2.30.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.2, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.9, Growth at 3.2, and Quality at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cheap Valuation And Target Upside
Trip ifShare price falls below the $38.13 stop-loss level.
- P3Oversold Price Momentum
Trip ifShare price stays below the 200-day moving average for more than 3 months.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1.5% of market cap over a 90-day window.
- P5Low Quality Supplier Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $450M from the current $520M.