Value
9.4/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1 |
- ▸Attractively valued
KODK · Why this verdict
Why Eastman Kodak (KODK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality composite score of 3.0 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, and the data flags 2 of 5 value-trap signals: high leverage (D/E 2.1) and negative free cash flow. Warnings | Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 and the value-trap signal count should drop to 0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong current ratio of 8.6 suggests near-term liquidity is not a concern, so the leverage and cash-burn flags may be less urgent than the value-trap label implies. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued on a price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA basis, with a value composite score of 9.4. Valuation breakdown | The value composite score should stay above 7.0 over the next 12 months if the discount persists without further fundamental deterioration. | →Stable |
| CounterA steep discount alongside negative free cash flow and high leverage may reflect the market correctly pricing in structural business risk rather than a genuine opportunity. | ||
The V9 expert panel flagged a failed momentum gate at 3.0 versus the 4.5 threshold, contributing to an avoid position-sizing recommendation. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should rise to at least 4.5 over the next 12 months for the momentum gate to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterThe data notes the stock is in a pullback within an uptrend, with the 200-day moving average still rising 6.6% over 30 days, suggesting the momentum weakness may not be confirmed structural deterioration. | ||
The company shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8.9 (8/9) despite being cash-burning at -1% of revenue. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 or higher and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months if the quality signal is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score paired with active cash burn and no competitive moat suggests the balance-sheet-quality signal may not translate into sustainable operating profitability. | ||
The engine classifies the stock as speculative due to a 43% drawdown from its 52-week high, more than 40% off that high. Suitability rationale | The drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow to less than 40% over the next 12 months if the recovery is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterA drawdown just barely past the 40% speculative threshold could reverse quickly with a modest price recovery, unlike a deeper structural decline. | ||
The quality composite score of 3.0 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, and the data flags 2 of 5 value-trap signals: high leverage (D/E 2.1) and negative free cash flow.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 and the value-trap signal count should drop to 0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable.
CounterA strong current ratio of 8.6 suggests near-term liquidity is not a concern, so the leverage and cash-burn flags may be less urgent than the value-trap label implies.
The stock screens as attractively valued on a price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA basis, with a value composite score of 9.4.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value composite score should stay above 7.0 over the next 12 months if the discount persists without further fundamental deterioration.
CounterA steep discount alongside negative free cash flow and high leverage may reflect the market correctly pricing in structural business risk rather than a genuine opportunity.
The V9 expert panel flagged a failed momentum gate at 3.0 versus the 4.5 threshold, contributing to an avoid position-sizing recommendation.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should rise to at least 4.5 over the next 12 months for the momentum gate to clear.
CounterThe data notes the stock is in a pullback within an uptrend, with the 200-day moving average still rising 6.6% over 30 days, suggesting the momentum weakness may not be confirmed structural deterioration.
The company shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8.9 (8/9) despite being cash-burning at -1% of revenue.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 or higher and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months if the quality signal is durable.
CounterA strong Piotroski score paired with active cash burn and no competitive moat suggests the balance-sheet-quality signal may not translate into sustainable operating profitability.
The engine classifies the stock as speculative due to a 43% drawdown from its 52-week high, more than 40% off that high.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- The drawdown from the 52-week high should narrow to less than 40% over the next 12 months if the recovery is durable.
CounterA drawdown just barely past the 40% speculative threshold could reverse quickly with a modest price recovery, unlike a deeper structural decline.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Eastman Kodak screens as attractively valued with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but quality sits below the engine's floor amid value-trap signals of high leverage and negative free cash flow, the momentum gate failed, and the stock is classified speculative after a 43% drawdown from its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.5 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $20,600 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -45% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Insider at 7.5, and Technical at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Quality at 3.0, and Growth at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Value Trap
Trip ifQuality score falls below 1.5, further below the 4.0 floor.
- P2Attractive Headline Valuation
Trip ifEV/EBITDA multiple expands above 12x, less attractive than the current level.
- P3Failed Momentum Gate
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 2.0, further from the 4.5 gate threshold.
- P4Strong Piotroski Cash Burn
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9, down from the current 8.9.
- P5Speculative Drawdown Classification
Trip ifPrice falls more than 55% off the 52-week high, worse than the current -43% drawdown.