Value
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
KODK · Why this verdict
Why Eastman Kodak (KODK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Eastman Kodak screens as cheap (forward P/E 12.0x, PEG 0.33) with strong earnings growth and a Piotroski score of 8/9, but concentration in prepress products and single-source suppliers plus only 9% upside to the analyst target leave a thin margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 4.0/10 with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and current ratio component of 9.7, but gross margin is weak at 0.8/10 and ROE and net margin are at zero. Quality breakdown | Net margin should turn positive and ROE should rise above 5% within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterZero ROE and net margin show that financial strength has not translated into profits, and quality ranks in the bottom of peers (0.67 rank). | ||
Forward P/E is 12.0x with a PEG of 0.33, and the earnings growth score is 10/10, so growth looks inexpensively priced. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should persist and the forward P/E should hold below 15x over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG of 0.33 is built on a small earnings base after a rebound, and growth may fade quickly as comparisons toughen. | ||
Prepress Solutions makes up 52.0% of the business, so a single product line drives results. Bear case | Prepress share of revenue should fall below 50% as other lines grow over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrepress is a declining print-industry niche, so heavy dependence leaves limited diversification if volumes keep shrinking. | ||
The company relies on single or limited-source suppliers, flagged as 2 high and 1 medium concentration risks in the 10-K risk factors. Risk breakdown | Supply should remain uninterrupted and gross margin should stay positive over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA supplier disruption could halt production, and gross margin score of only 0.8/10 leaves little cushion to absorb higher input costs. | ||
The $10.20 analyst target is 9.0% above the $9.36 price against 8.8% downside to the $8.70 stop, a reward-to-risk of about 1.0. Analyst target | Price should advance toward $10.20 as earnings growth continues over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is thin (1.0), so the target may be unreliable; the 28% analyst upside note suggests a higher figure could be justified. | ||
Quality scores 4.0/10 with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and current ratio component of 9.7, but gross margin is weak at 0.8/10 and ROE and net margin are at zero.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should turn positive and ROE should rise above 5% within 12 months.
CounterZero ROE and net margin show that financial strength has not translated into profits, and quality ranks in the bottom of peers (0.67 rank).
Forward P/E is 12.0x with a PEG of 0.33, and the earnings growth score is 10/10, so growth looks inexpensively priced.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should persist and the forward P/E should hold below 15x over the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 0.33 is built on a small earnings base after a rebound, and growth may fade quickly as comparisons toughen.
Prepress Solutions makes up 52.0% of the business, so a single product line drives results.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Prepress share of revenue should fall below 50% as other lines grow over 12 months.
CounterPrepress is a declining print-industry niche, so heavy dependence leaves limited diversification if volumes keep shrinking.
The company relies on single or limited-source suppliers, flagged as 2 high and 1 medium concentration risks in the 10-K risk factors.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Supply should remain uninterrupted and gross margin should stay positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA supplier disruption could halt production, and gross margin score of only 0.8/10 leaves little cushion to absorb higher input costs.
The $10.20 analyst target is 9.0% above the $9.36 price against 8.8% downside to the $8.70 stop, a reward-to-risk of about 1.0.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should advance toward $10.20 as earnings growth continues over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is thin (1.0), so the target may be unreliable; the 28% analyst upside note suggests a higher figure could be justified.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.89
Upside
+8.3%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 46, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.57>1.3, MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.9<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.89 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Growth at 7.1, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Quality at 4.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 12.0x.
- P2Prepress Product Concentration
Trip ifPrepress Solutions share of revenue exceeds 60% from the current 52%.
- P3Single Source Supplier Risk
Trip ifGross margin falls below 10% due to supplier cost increases.
- P4Limited Reward To Risk
Trip ifShare price falls below the $8.70 stop-loss level.
- P5Improving Balance Sheet Weak Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops to 5 or less from the current 8.