Value
9.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
KIO · Why this verdict
Why KKR Income Opportunities Fund (KIO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
KKR Income Opportunities Fund is a sub-$400M income fund yielding about 15% that is in a confirmed downtrend with weak fund-level quality scores, so its high dividend does not offset poor momentum and sub-scale size.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 0.9/10 with a Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 and no competitive moat, although these operating-company metrics fit a closed-end fund poorly. Quality breakdown | Net asset value should hold steady so the discount to NAV does not widen over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMargin and Piotroski metrics are not meaningful for a fund, so a low score may simply be a data artifact. | ||
The fund pays a dividend of 15.0% on a $9.74 price, which is the main reason to own it. Catalyst breakdown | The distribution should be maintained at or near the current 15% yield over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 15% yield on a fixed-income fund often signals return of capital, and dividend safety scores only 5.5/10. | ||
Momentum scores 3.0/10 with price below the 200-day average, falling OBV and a bearish MACD, with RSI at 37. Momentum breakdown | Price should recover above the 200-day average over 12 months for the income thesis to be safe. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the 200-day slope flat and a technical score of 9.0/10 near support, the decline may be nearly exhausted. | ||
Market cap of $399M sits below the $400M minimum and below institutional reach, limiting investor demand and liquidity. Engine summary | Market cap should reclaim $400M as the price recovers within 12 months. | — |
| CounterSmall size is itself a reason the fund can trade at a persistent discount, which can mean attractive yield for retail holders. | ||
Insiders made four purchases worth $40,890 in the last 90 days with no sales, a bullish but immaterial signal at 0.010% of market cap. Insider | Insider purchases should continue and the total should exceed $100,000 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAt 0.010% of market cap the buying is too small to signal real conviction. | ||
Quality scores 0.9/10 with a Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 and no competitive moat, although these operating-company metrics fit a closed-end fund poorly.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net asset value should hold steady so the discount to NAV does not widen over 12 months.
CounterMargin and Piotroski metrics are not meaningful for a fund, so a low score may simply be a data artifact.
The fund pays a dividend of 15.0% on a $9.74 price, which is the main reason to own it.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The distribution should be maintained at or near the current 15% yield over the next 12 months.
CounterA 15% yield on a fixed-income fund often signals return of capital, and dividend safety scores only 5.5/10.
Momentum scores 3.0/10 with price below the 200-day average, falling OBV and a bearish MACD, with RSI at 37.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should recover above the 200-day average over 12 months for the income thesis to be safe.
CounterWith the 200-day slope flat and a technical score of 9.0/10 near support, the decline may be nearly exhausted.
Market cap of $399M sits below the $400M minimum and below institutional reach, limiting investor demand and liquidity.
—Engine summary
- Expectation
- Market cap should reclaim $400M as the price recovers within 12 months.
CounterSmall size is itself a reason the fund can trade at a persistent discount, which can mean attractive yield for retail holders.
Insiders made four purchases worth $40,890 in the last 90 days with no sales, a bullish but immaterial signal at 0.010% of market cap.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider purchases should continue and the total should exceed $100,000 over the next 12 months.
CounterAt 0.010% of market cap the buying is too small to signal real conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
0.9/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 0.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 0/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $119,290 (0.029% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.7/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.4 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 14.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.4<4.5 outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 9.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.7, Value at 9.0, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 0.9, Momentum at 4.4, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Yield Income Profile
Trip ifThe dividend yield falls below 10% from the current 15%.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifShare price falls below the $9.46 stop-loss level.
- P3Weak Fund Quality Metrics
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 for 4 consecutive quarters from the current 0.9.
- P4Sub Scale Market Cap
Trip ifMarket cap drops to $300M or less from the current $399M.
- P5Small Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net purchases over 90 days drop to less than $0 (net selling).