Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.94
- ▸Attractively valued
KELYA · Why this verdict
Why Kelly Services (KELYA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.6x with a PEG of 0.94, described in the data as attractively valued relative to peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 10x and PEG should remain near or below 1.0 over the next 12 months if the value discount thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA discount this steep in a staffing business facing a declining revenue trend may reflect deserved skepticism about earnings durability rather than mispricing. | ||
The quality composite score of 2.2 sits well below the engine's 4.0 floor, triggering an action note to exit the position. Warnings | Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score is dragged down largely by margin weakness rather than balance sheet risk, given the moat score of 4.0 and a current ratio of 5.8, so it could recover faster than a structurally impaired business. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with an RSI of 62 and bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The stock should remain above its key moving averages and RSI should stay above 50 over the next 12 months if the breakout setup holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout in a small, thinly-covered stock ($0.5B market cap, described as below institutional reach) can reverse quickly without sustained institutional buying support. | ||
Insiders sold a net $293,300 (0.065% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal. | ||
The V9 expert panel flagged a failed asymmetry gate at 0.6 versus the 1.5 threshold, driving an avoid position-sizing recommendation despite the passed momentum gate. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should rise to at least 1.5 over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid. | →Stable |
| CounterThe passed momentum gate at 6.4 (above the 5.5 threshold) and ongoing breakout setup suggest the risk/reward profile could improve quickly if the rally continues. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.6x with a PEG of 0.94, described in the data as attractively valued relative to peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 10x and PEG should remain near or below 1.0 over the next 12 months if the value discount thesis holds.
CounterA discount this steep in a staffing business facing a declining revenue trend may reflect deserved skepticism about earnings durability rather than mispricing.
The quality composite score of 2.2 sits well below the engine's 4.0 floor, triggering an action note to exit the position.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score should recover to at least 4.0 over the next 12 months for the position to be re-considered viable.
CounterThe quality score is dragged down largely by margin weakness rather than balance sheet risk, given the moat score of 4.0 and a current ratio of 5.8, so it could recover faster than a structurally impaired business.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with an RSI of 62 and bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should remain above its key moving averages and RSI should stay above 50 over the next 12 months if the breakout setup holds.
CounterA breakout in a small, thinly-covered stock ($0.5B market cap, described as below institutional reach) can reverse quickly without sustained institutional buying support.
Insiders sold a net $293,300 (0.065% of market cap) in the last 90 days with zero offsetting buys, producing a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift to neutral or bullish with net buying activity over the next 12 months if the bearish read is not predictive.
CounterThe dollar amount and share of market cap sold are both described as modest, so this may be routine diversification rather than a meaningful negative signal.
The V9 expert panel flagged a failed asymmetry gate at 0.6 versus the 1.5 threshold, driving an avoid position-sizing recommendation despite the passed momentum gate.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise to at least 1.5 over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid.
CounterThe passed momentum gate at 6.4 (above the 5.5 threshold) and ongoing breakout setup suggest the risk/reward profile could improve quickly if the rally continues.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kelly Services trades at a steep value discount with a forward P/E of 7.6x and a golden-cross breakout underway, but a quality score below the engine's floor, bearish insider selling, and a failed asymmetry gate reflecting unfavorable risk/reward keep conviction at none.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -11%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $293,300 (0.065% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.2 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 7.43
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.42
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Insider at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Quality at 2.2, and Technical at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Discount
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 7.6x.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score falls below 1.5, further below the 4.0 floor.
- P3Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifRSI falls below 45 from the current 62, breaking the breakout setup.
- P4Bearish Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap, up from the current 0.065%.
- P5Failed Asymmetry Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 0.3, further from the 1.5 gate threshold.