Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
- ▸Attractively valued
KELYA · Why this verdict
Why Kelly Services (KELYA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kelly Services is a staffing company with a cheap forward P/E of 9.2x, strong price momentum and a dividend, but low quality, falling revenue, three misses in four quarters and a price just 1.3% below the analyst target leave little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Kelly trades at a forward P/E of 9.2x with a PEG of 0.69, is a dividend aristocrat yielding 1.8%, and scores attractively on value. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x and the dividend is maintained over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturns and margins score near zero, so a cheap multiple may reflect weak earnings power rather than a bargain. | ||
Revenue is declining 6% year over year, quality is weak at 1.9/10 and there is no competitive moat. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes at about $1.04B and the year-over-year decline narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue of $925.9M is well below the latest $1.04B, which points to further shrinkage in a cyclical staffing market. | ||
Kelly missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -27.6%, though the August 2026 report beat at $0.37 versus $0.24. Earnings | The November 5 report meets or beats the consensus estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterOne beat after three large misses is not yet a trend, and earnings estimates have been repeatedly too high. | ||
At $16.79 the stock is 1.3% below the $17.00 analyst target, with 10.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.12. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $17.00 as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterWith almost no upside to the target and 10.6% downside, the setup favors waiting for a pullback. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.5/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but the put/call ratio is elevated at 9.00. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average while on-balance volume keeps rising. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn extreme put/call ratio suggests some investors are hedging or betting against the breakout. | ||
Kelly trades at a forward P/E of 9.2x with a PEG of 0.69, is a dividend aristocrat yielding 1.8%, and scores attractively on value.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x and the dividend is maintained over 12 months.
CounterReturns and margins score near zero, so a cheap multiple may reflect weak earnings power rather than a bargain.
Revenue is declining 6% year over year, quality is weak at 1.9/10 and there is no competitive moat.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes at about $1.04B and the year-over-year decline narrows.
CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue of $925.9M is well below the latest $1.04B, which points to further shrinkage in a cyclical staffing market.
Kelly missed estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -27.6%, though the August 2026 report beat at $0.37 versus $0.24.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 5 report meets or beats the consensus estimate.
CounterOne beat after three large misses is not yet a trend, and earnings estimates have been repeatedly too high.
At $16.79 the stock is 1.3% below the $17.00 analyst target, with 10.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.12.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $17.00 as earnings recover.
CounterWith almost no upside to the target and 10.6% downside, the setup favors waiting for a pullback.
Momentum is strong at 7.5/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but the put/call ratio is elevated at 9.00.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average while on-balance volume keeps rising.
CounterAn extreme put/call ratio suggests some investors are hedging or betting against the breakout.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.00
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.8% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.36
Upside
+3.2%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.36.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.7, and Insider at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.6, Quality at 1.9, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.2x.
- P2Declining Revenue Low Quality
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue decline exceeds 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -25% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Near Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price falls below the $15.71 stop level from the current $16.79.
- P5Breakout Momentum Bearish Options
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.5.