Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.14
- ▸Attractively valued
KE · Why this verdict
Why Kimball Electronics (KE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Kimball is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 13.5x with a PEG of 1.14, and converts 190% of net income into free cash flow. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and the forward P/E holds near 13.5x as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins and returns are low with no competitive moat, so strong cash conversion may come from working-capital release that does not repeat. | ||
At $24.60 the stock is 17.5% below the $28.90 analyst target, with 8.3% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.1. Targets | Price moves toward the $28.90 analyst target as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and two recent earnings misses may lead to target cuts. | ||
Revenue is declining 2% year over year and the last two quarters missed estimates, including a loss of $0.01 per share versus a $0.39 estimate in August 2026. Earnings | Quarterly earnings return to positive and meet the estimate at the November 4 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA near-complete earnings collapse in one quarter suggests deeper margin pressure than the revenue trend shows. | ||
Momentum is very weak at 1.3/10 with RSI 25, falling on-balance volume and price below a 200-day average sloping down 1.3% per 30 days. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it as selling pressure eases. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCapitulation-level RSI can bounce, but a confirmed downtrend with distribution volume often continues lower. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.58 with implied volatility of 92%, showing options traders are positioned for further downside. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as sentiment improves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHedging demand and high implied volatility signal uncertainty ahead of the November earnings report. | ||
Kimball is attractively valued at a forward P/E of 13.5x with a PEG of 1.14, and converts 190% of net income into free cash flow.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and the forward P/E holds near 13.5x as earnings recover.
CounterMargins and returns are low with no competitive moat, so strong cash conversion may come from working-capital release that does not repeat.
At $24.60 the stock is 17.5% below the $28.90 analyst target, with 8.3% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.1.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $28.90 analyst target as earnings recover.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, and two recent earnings misses may lead to target cuts.
Revenue is declining 2% year over year and the last two quarters missed estimates, including a loss of $0.01 per share versus a $0.39 estimate in August 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly earnings return to positive and meet the estimate at the November 4 report.
CounterA near-complete earnings collapse in one quarter suggests deeper margin pressure than the revenue trend shows.
Momentum is very weak at 1.3/10 with RSI 25, falling on-balance volume and price below a 200-day average sloping down 1.3% per 30 days.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it as selling pressure eases.
CounterCapitulation-level RSI can bounce, but a confirmed downtrend with distribution volume often continues lower.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.58 with implied volatility of 92%, showing options traders are positioned for further downside.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.0 as sentiment improves.
CounterHedging demand and high implied volatility signal uncertainty ahead of the November earnings report.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 190% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.9 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.38
- ▸High IV: 75%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.62
Upside
+6.9%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.62 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.2, Catalyst at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, Quality at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.62 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income from the current 190%.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifStock price falls below the $23.31 stop level from the current $24.60.
- P3Declining Revenue Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Capitulation
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 2.0 for 2 consecutive months.
- P5Elevated Put Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.5 from the current 1.58.