Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.89
- Estimate
- $2.37
- Surprise
- -20.1%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $1.21B
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.2 → 6.4/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) missed the $2.37 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.89 — a large 20.1% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.2/10) to Sell at 6.4/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates KALU Sell at 5.3/10.
2 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -20.1% surprise compares with a +44.0% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2027-02-17.
What supports the rating
- Earnings estimates trending UP
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Customer: top five customers (56.0%)
- Concentration risk — Supplier: Alcoa
- Thin upside margin: 5.1%
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $120.98
- Price target
- $127.19
- Stop
- $112.52
- Upside to target
- +5.1%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.4:1
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (10.9× forward vs 9.3× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
KALU at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Market cap
- $1.98B
- P/E (fwd)
- 10.9
- P/E (ttm)
- 9.3
- 52-week range
- $87.89–$199.89
- Off 52-week high
- 39.5%
- RSI (14)
- 31
- Volume vs avg
- 0.03×
- Score today
- 5.3/10