Value
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.6 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.29
JOUT · Why this verdict
Why Johnson Outdoors (JOUT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Johnson Outdoors is a small leisure-products maker with a strong recent earnings recovery and a 9/9 Piotroski score, but low-quality margins, supplier concentration, 14% short interest and just 7.7% upside to the analyst target limit the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is below average at 4.2/10 with no competitive moat, even though the Piotroski score is a strong 9/9, and the company ranks near the bottom of peers on quality. Quality breakdown | Margins improve and quality moves above 5 as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity and net margin score zero, so the earnings recovery has not yet shown up in returns. | ||
The company depends on a single vendor for certain parts and materials, a high-severity concentration risk that could interrupt production. Bear case | No supply disruption occurs and margins hold over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-vendor dependence leaves little room to absorb a supplier failure or price increase. | ||
Johnson Outdoors beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with $1.42 versus a $0.68 estimate in August 2026, after a large loss of $2.83 in December 2025. Earnings | Quarterly earnings stay positive and meet or beat estimates through the December 16 report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe December quarter has produced large losses in each of the last three years, so seasonal losses may return. | ||
At $45.00 the stock is 7.7% below the $48.45 analyst target, with 7.2% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 1.1. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $48.45 as earnings recover. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterUpside and downside are nearly equal, so the setup offers little margin for error. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average, which is still rising 0.8% per 30 days, while short interest is 14%. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and short interest declines from 14%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest and seasonal losses give bears a case that the recovery will fade. | ||
Quality is below average at 4.2/10 with no competitive moat, even though the Piotroski score is a strong 9/9, and the company ranks near the bottom of peers on quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins improve and quality moves above 5 as earnings recover.
CounterReturn on equity and net margin score zero, so the earnings recovery has not yet shown up in returns.
The company depends on a single vendor for certain parts and materials, a high-severity concentration risk that could interrupt production.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- No supply disruption occurs and margins hold over the next 12 months.
CounterA single-vendor dependence leaves little room to absorb a supplier failure or price increase.
Johnson Outdoors beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with $1.42 versus a $0.68 estimate in August 2026, after a large loss of $2.83 in December 2025.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly earnings stay positive and meet or beat estimates through the December 16 report.
CounterThe December quarter has produced large losses in each of the last three years, so seasonal losses may return.
At $45.00 the stock is 7.7% below the $48.45 analyst target, with 7.2% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of only 1.1.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $48.45 as earnings recover.
CounterUpside and downside are nearly equal, so the setup offers little margin for error.
Price is below the 200-day average, which is still rising 0.8% per 30 days, while short interest is 14%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and short interest declines from 14%.
CounterHigh short interest and seasonal losses give bears a case that the recovery will fade.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $299,125 (0.063% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.96
Upside
+7.2%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.96 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.9, Sentiment at 6.1, and Insider at 5.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.7, Quality at 4.2, and Catalyst at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Recovery Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% in the next 2 reported quarters.
- P2Low Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.5 from the current 4.2.
- P3Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifGross margin falls below 35% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Thin Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price falls below the $42.56 stop level from the current $45.00.
- P5Pullback High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% from the current 14%.