Value
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 5.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.32
JOUT · Why this verdict
Why Johnson Outdoors (JOUT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company posts a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong fundamental balance-sheet and operating trends despite an otherwise below-average overall quality score. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near 9/9 over the next 12 months, sustaining fundamental balance-sheet strength. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score can coexist with weak profitability metrics like zero ROE and net margin, meaning the balance-sheet strength may not translate into shareholder returns. | ||
The risk/reward asymmetry gate failed, with a ratio of 0.9x falling short of the 1.5x minimum, driven by a thin 7.5% upside margin to the take-profit target against 8.3% downside risk. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5x as price pulls back toward a better entry or the take-profit target is raised, clearing the gate. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the stock's momentum weakness persists, price could continue declining without ever generating an attractive entry, leaving the asymmetry gate permanently failed. | ||
Johnson Outdoors has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, described in the catalyst notes as strong earnings performance. Bull case | The company should continue beating or meeting estimates at the August 7, 2026 report, maintaining the 3-of-4 beat rate. | →Stable |
| CounterThe single miss in the last 4 quarters was severe (-316% surprise), and the average surprise across the period is negative overall (-18.7%), suggesting the beat streak masks significant earnings volatility. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed hard, with momentum at just 2.0 versus a 4.5 threshold, and the technical notes flag capitulation risk with RSI at 29 while price sits below the 200-day moving average. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum score should climb back above 4.5 over the next 12 months as the capitulation-risk condition resolves. | →Stable |
| CounterThe notes also indicate the 200-day moving average is still rising (+2.2%/30d) even with price below it, suggesting this could be a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown into capitulation. | ||
Short interest stands at 15% while insiders have been net sellers of $141,589 worth of stock in the last 90 days with a BEARISH signal, reinforcing the case for caution. Insider transaction read | Short interest should decline from 15% and the insider signal should shift away from BEARISH over the next 12 months if the bullish thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider selling is flagged as modest relative to market cap, and elevated short interest combined with a rising 200-day moving average could set up a short-squeeze dynamic rather than confirm bearish conviction. | ||
The company posts a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong fundamental balance-sheet and operating trends despite an otherwise below-average overall quality score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near 9/9 over the next 12 months, sustaining fundamental balance-sheet strength.
CounterA strong Piotroski score can coexist with weak profitability metrics like zero ROE and net margin, meaning the balance-sheet strength may not translate into shareholder returns.
The risk/reward asymmetry gate failed, with a ratio of 0.9x falling short of the 1.5x minimum, driven by a thin 7.5% upside margin to the take-profit target against 8.3% downside risk.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5x as price pulls back toward a better entry or the take-profit target is raised, clearing the gate.
CounterIf the stock's momentum weakness persists, price could continue declining without ever generating an attractive entry, leaving the asymmetry gate permanently failed.
Johnson Outdoors has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, described in the catalyst notes as strong earnings performance.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The company should continue beating or meeting estimates at the August 7, 2026 report, maintaining the 3-of-4 beat rate.
CounterThe single miss in the last 4 quarters was severe (-316% surprise), and the average surprise across the period is negative overall (-18.7%), suggesting the beat streak masks significant earnings volatility.
The engine's momentum gate failed hard, with momentum at just 2.0 versus a 4.5 threshold, and the technical notes flag capitulation risk with RSI at 29 while price sits below the 200-day moving average.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum score should climb back above 4.5 over the next 12 months as the capitulation-risk condition resolves.
CounterThe notes also indicate the 200-day moving average is still rising (+2.2%/30d) even with price below it, suggesting this could be a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown into capitulation.
Short interest stands at 15% while insiders have been net sellers of $141,589 worth of stock in the last 90 days with a BEARISH signal, reinforcing the case for caution.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline from 15% and the insider signal should shift away from BEARISH over the next 12 months if the bullish thesis holds.
CounterThe insider selling is flagged as modest relative to market cap, and elevated short interest combined with a rising 200-day moving average could set up a short-squeeze dynamic rather than confirm bearish conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Johnson Outdoors carries a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak and a near-perfect Piotroski balance-sheet score, but a hard-failed momentum gate flagging capitulation risk, a thin risk/reward asymmetry, and elevated short interest with insider selling point to multiple concerning factors that argue for reducing rather than adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
3.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $141,589 (0.031% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.5 |
| support resistance | 8.7 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.08
Upside
+8.4%
Downside
7.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.1, Value at 6.5, and Peer rank at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Insider at 3.6, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses earnings estimates for a 2nd time in the next 4 quarters, or average surprise falls below -25%.
- P2Strong Piotroski Balance Sheet
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9/9.
- P3Capitulation Risk Momentum Failure
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 2.0, clearing the failed gate.
- P4Thin Asymmetry Gate Failure
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5x from the current 0.9x.
- P5High Short Interest Insider Selling
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% from the current 15%, or insider signal flips to BULLISH.