Value
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.7 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.81
ITGR · Why this verdict
Why Integer Holdings (ITGR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Integer Holdings has beaten consensus EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock now sits near the top of its near-term expected range with only 2.2% upside to resistance and a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 0.4-to-1. Weak price momentum, an elevated short interest of 16%, and the absence of a competitive moat combine to make the current setup unattractive for new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters — with the oldest quarter delivering an in-line result, followed by three straight beats including the most recent April 2026 period — suggesting a pattern of consistent delivery against analyst expectations. Earnings | EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates in each of the next 2 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 1%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 13.3x alongside a PEG of 2.43 implies the market has already priced in continued delivery; without a competitive moat, there is limited justification for the current multiple if earnings growth disappoints. | ||
On-balance volume is in a declining trend and price has been range-bound in mid-territory, indicating that sellers are outpacing buyers on a volume-flow basis even though the stock has held above its 200-day moving average. Momentum | Momentum improves if on-balance volume reverses upward and RSI breaks above 60 on rising average volume. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average could indicate healthy consolidation rather than distribution; if earnings beats continue, institutional buyers may re-engage and restart an upward trend. | ||
With approximately 2.2% upside to near-term resistance and roughly 5% downside to the reference support level, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 0.4-to-1 — well below any threshold that would justify committing new capital at this price. Price targets | The setup becomes more attractive if the stock pulls back enough to expand upside to the take-profit target to at least 10%, restoring a more favorable asymmetry. | →Stable |
| CounterIf business results continue to exceed expectations, the stock may break through current resistance without offering a better entry, leaving patient investors behind. | ||
Short interest at 16% of the float is elevated — adverse news could accelerate selling pressure while positive results risk a disorderly covering event that distorts the stock's price signal in either direction. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines below 8% as the fundamental picture clarifies, reducing the volatility amplification risk. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated short interest could serve as a squeeze catalyst if earnings beats force shorts to cover, producing a sharp near-term rally that rewards existing holders disproportionately. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters — with the oldest quarter delivering an in-line result, followed by three straight beats including the most recent April 2026 period — suggesting a pattern of consistent delivery against analyst expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to exceed consensus estimates in each of the next 2 quarters, with average positive surprise remaining above 1%.
CounterThe forward P/E of 13.3x alongside a PEG of 2.43 implies the market has already priced in continued delivery; without a competitive moat, there is limited justification for the current multiple if earnings growth disappoints.
On-balance volume is in a declining trend and price has been range-bound in mid-territory, indicating that sellers are outpacing buyers on a volume-flow basis even though the stock has held above its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Momentum improves if on-balance volume reverses upward and RSI breaks above 60 on rising average volume.
CounterThe stock remaining above its 200-day moving average could indicate healthy consolidation rather than distribution; if earnings beats continue, institutional buyers may re-engage and restart an upward trend.
With approximately 2.2% upside to near-term resistance and roughly 5% downside to the reference support level, the reward-to-risk ratio stands at approximately 0.4-to-1 — well below any threshold that would justify committing new capital at this price.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The setup becomes more attractive if the stock pulls back enough to expand upside to the take-profit target to at least 10%, restoring a more favorable asymmetry.
CounterIf business results continue to exceed expectations, the stock may break through current resistance without offering a better entry, leaving patient investors behind.
Short interest at 16% of the float is elevated — adverse news could accelerate selling pressure while positive results risk a disorderly covering event that distorts the stock's price signal in either direction.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 8% as the fundamental picture clarifies, reducing the volatility amplification risk.
CounterElevated short interest could serve as a squeeze catalyst if earnings beats force shorts to cover, producing a sharp near-term rally that rewards existing holders disproportionately.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 4.0 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.9 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,169,956 (0.120% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 10.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.98
Upside
-14.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.98 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, Technical at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Peer rank at 3.4, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Discipline
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deteriorating Price Momentum
Trip ifRSI rises above 60 and on-balance volume turns consistently positive for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P3Unfavorable Reward Risk Geometry
Trip ifUpside to take-profit target expands above 10% following a price pullback.
- P4High Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of the float.