Value
3.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.2 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
IRMD · Why this verdict
Why iRadimed (IRMD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
iRadimed is a high-quality small-cap franchise with a wide economic moat, best-in-class margins, and a near-perfect financial health score, but the shares trade at a forward earnings multiple of 38.6x — a valuation that leaves little margin of safety — and an elevated options skew signals meaningful near-term uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business carries a wide economic moat, operating margins of 27%, return on equity of 25%, and a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score — a combination of profitability, returns, and financial strength that ranks among the best in its peer group. Quality breakdown | Operating margins stay above 24% and return on equity remains above 20% over the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall-cap franchises with wide moats can see competitive inroads if a larger incumbent dedicates resources to the segment; the financial health scores are backwards-looking and may not reflect an evolving competitive landscape. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 4.0 and implied volatility is at 72%, levels that suggest the options market is pricing in significant near-term uncertainty despite the solid underlying fundamentals. Risk breakdown | The put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility compresses below 40% as near-term event risk resolves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in small-cap names with limited analyst coverage often reflect hedging by concentrated holders rather than broad bearish conviction; the signal may overstate the actual fundamental risk. | ||
The company posted three beats and one in-line result across the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.6%, suggesting the business is consistently under-promising and over-delivering on quarterly expectations. Earnings | The beat-or-in-line streak extends to six consecutive quarters and average surprise remains above 5% per period. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAverages can mask individual quarter volatility; the one in-line quarter within the streak shows the upside surprise is not perfectly consistent, and even a modest earnings miss at a 38x multiple would likely produce a sharp price reaction. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 38.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.74, the shares are priced expensively relative to the growth profile, leaving the setup dependent on continued execution with no room for disappointment. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E compresses below 28x through earnings growth rather than price decline, demonstrating the valuation is being grown into. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh-quality franchises with wide economic moats and consistent double-digit earnings beats can sustain premium multiples for extended periods; 38x may simply reflect appropriate pricing for the business quality on offer. | ||
The business carries a wide economic moat, operating margins of 27%, return on equity of 25%, and a perfect 9-out-of-9 financial health score — a combination of profitability, returns, and financial strength that ranks among the best in its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins stay above 24% and return on equity remains above 20% over the next four reported quarters.
CounterSmall-cap franchises with wide moats can see competitive inroads if a larger incumbent dedicates resources to the segment; the financial health scores are backwards-looking and may not reflect an evolving competitive landscape.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 4.0 and implied volatility is at 72%, levels that suggest the options market is pricing in significant near-term uncertainty despite the solid underlying fundamentals.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 and implied volatility compresses below 40% as near-term event risk resolves.
CounterElevated put-to-call ratios in small-cap names with limited analyst coverage often reflect hedging by concentrated holders rather than broad bearish conviction; the signal may overstate the actual fundamental risk.
The company posted three beats and one in-line result across the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 9.6%, suggesting the business is consistently under-promising and over-delivering on quarterly expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat-or-in-line streak extends to six consecutive quarters and average surprise remains above 5% per period.
CounterAverages can mask individual quarter volatility; the one in-line quarter within the streak shows the upside surprise is not perfectly consistent, and even a modest earnings miss at a 38x multiple would likely produce a sharp price reaction.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 38.6x and a price-to-growth ratio of 1.74, the shares are priced expensively relative to the growth profile, leaving the setup dependent on continued execution with no room for disappointment.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E compresses below 28x through earnings growth rather than price decline, demonstrating the valuation is being grown into.
CounterHigh-quality franchises with wide economic moats and consistent double-digit earnings beats can sustain premium multiples for extended periods; 38x may simply reflect appropriate pricing for the business quality on offer.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 19 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 9.4 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $122,622 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.9 |
| beta | 7.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.90
Upside
+19.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.8) with weak momentum (2.6)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Technical at 8.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.0, Quality at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Value at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.90 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Best In Class Quality
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 20% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the beat-or-in-line streak.
- P3Expensive Valuation Limits Upside
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 25x as earnings estimates rise more than 30% from current levels.
- P4Elevated Options Skew Uncertainty
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio falls below 1.5 for 4 or more consecutive weeks.