Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
INCY · Why this verdict
Why Incyte (INCY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Incyte is a high-quality, fast-growing biotech with a wide moat and a strong earnings beat streak, but the stock sits 0.8% below the $116.59 analyst target with earnings 5 days away, leaving little near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Incyte is a high-quality business with 31% ROE, 28% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score, which should sustain returns above peers. Quality breakdown | ROE stays near 30% and margins stay near 28% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged, with free cash flow only 73% of net income, so reported profits may overstate cash generation. | ||
Growth is strong at 38% year over year, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.05B in March 2025 to $1.67B in June 2026. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue keeps growing above $1.67B and year-over-year growth stays strong. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at a biotech can be lumpy and the latest quarter is still provisional data, so the pace may fade. | ||
Incyte beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +27.8%, including a 44% beat in July 2026. Earnings | The October 29 report beats consensus and the beat streak continues. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates may now be set higher after repeated beats, and the one miss in February 2026 shows beats are not guaranteed. | ||
At $115.71 the stock is 0.8% below the $116.59 analyst target against 6.9% downside to the stop, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.11 and little room to add. Targets | Analysts raise targets above $116.59 as results improve, reopening upside. | →Stable |
| CounterUpside is nearly exhausted and a pullback toward the $109.36 entry level is more likely than a breakout. | ||
Insiders made 19 sales and no purchases in 90 days, totalling about $14.7M, which is modest at 0.063% of market cap. Insider | Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap and no large buyers appear. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent selling with zero buying can signal that insiders see the stock as fully valued near the analyst target. | ||
Incyte is a high-quality business with 31% ROE, 28% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score, which should sustain returns above peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays near 30% and margins stay near 28% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged, with free cash flow only 73% of net income, so reported profits may overstate cash generation.
Growth is strong at 38% year over year, with quarterly revenue rising from $1.05B in March 2025 to $1.67B in June 2026.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue keeps growing above $1.67B and year-over-year growth stays strong.
CounterGrowth at a biotech can be lumpy and the latest quarter is still provisional data, so the pace may fade.
Incyte beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +27.8%, including a 44% beat in July 2026.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The October 29 report beats consensus and the beat streak continues.
CounterEstimates may now be set higher after repeated beats, and the one miss in February 2026 shows beats are not guaranteed.
At $115.71 the stock is 0.8% below the $116.59 analyst target against 6.9% downside to the stop, leaving a reward-to-risk of 0.11 and little room to add.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $116.59 as results improve, reopening upside.
CounterUpside is nearly exhausted and a pullback toward the $109.36 entry level is more likely than a breakout.
Insiders made 19 sales and no purchases in 90 days, totalling about $14.7M, which is modest at 0.063% of market cap.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.1% of market cap and no large buyers appear.
CounterConsistent selling with zero buying can signal that insiders see the stock as fully valued near the analyst target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 31%
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 38% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=3)
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $14,665,832 (0.062% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 9.9 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $65
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.07
Upside
+0.5%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 9.8 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Quality at 8.9, and Peer rank at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.7, Technical at 4.8, and Momentum at 6.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.07 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from the current 31%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifStock price falls below the $104.55 stop level from the current $115.71.
- P5Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $50M over a rolling 90 days.