Value
7.6/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
- ▸Attractively valued
IHRT · Why this verdict
Why iHeartMedia (IHRT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality notes show the company is free-cash-flow positive with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, despite moderate 3% FCF margins. Quality breakdown | If this quality read holds, the Piotroski F-Score should stay at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score can mask deteriorating trends if driven mostly by balance-sheet items rather than genuine earnings-quality improvement, especially alongside 4 consecutive earnings misses. | ||
Value notes flag an attractively valued stock, supported by strong price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA component scores of 10.0 and 5.2 respectively. Valuation breakdown | If this value read holds, the value score should stay elevated while price gradually re-rates upward over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuation multiples on a broadcaster facing consecutive earnings misses may reflect a genuine value trap rather than an undiscovered bargain. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -1050.73%, signaling persistent execution problems. Earnings | If this execution concern is accurate, EPS surprises should remain negative at the next reported quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterA string of misses driven by one-time restructuring or debt-related charges may not repeat once those items roll off, meaning the trend could reverse without an operational turnaround. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed with a ratio of -1.33, reflecting a setup where the -19.9% downside-to-upside gap indicates the analyst target has already been reached with little room left to run. Engine gate (failed) | If this negative asymmetry read holds, the ratio should remain below zero over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for turnaround broadcasters can be raised quickly once earnings even modestly stabilize, which would resolve the negative asymmetry without any price decline. | ||
Options data shows implied volatility at 112%, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around the stock's near-term direction. Options | If this elevated uncertainty is warranted, implied volatility should remain high over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSustained high implied volatility may simply reflect a structurally risky, thinly-traded small cap rather than a temporary condition that will normalize. | ||
Quality notes show the company is free-cash-flow positive with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, despite moderate 3% FCF margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If this quality read holds, the Piotroski F-Score should stay at or above 7 out of 9 over the next 12 months.
CounterA high Piotroski score can mask deteriorating trends if driven mostly by balance-sheet items rather than genuine earnings-quality improvement, especially alongside 4 consecutive earnings misses.
Value notes flag an attractively valued stock, supported by strong price-to-sales and EV/EBITDA component scores of 10.0 and 5.2 respectively.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If this value read holds, the value score should stay elevated while price gradually re-rates upward over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap valuation multiples on a broadcaster facing consecutive earnings misses may reflect a genuine value trap rather than an undiscovered bargain.
The company has missed earnings estimates in all of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -1050.73%, signaling persistent execution problems.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- If this execution concern is accurate, EPS surprises should remain negative at the next reported quarter.
CounterA string of misses driven by one-time restructuring or debt-related charges may not repeat once those items roll off, meaning the trend could reverse without an operational turnaround.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed with a ratio of -1.33, reflecting a setup where the -19.9% downside-to-upside gap indicates the analyst target has already been reached with little room left to run.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- If this negative asymmetry read holds, the ratio should remain below zero over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets for turnaround broadcasters can be raised quickly once earnings even modestly stabilize, which would resolve the negative asymmetry without any price decline.
Options data shows implied volatility at 112%, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around the stock's near-term direction.
→StableOptions
- Expectation
- If this elevated uncertainty is warranted, implied volatility should remain high over the next 12 months.
CounterSustained high implied volatility may simply reflect a structurally risky, thinly-traded small cap rather than a temporary condition that will normalize.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
iHeartMedia screens cheap on traditional value multiples, but 4 consecutive earnings misses, a negative asymmetry setup, and elevated implied volatility argue for caution until the turnaround shows through in results.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 3%, FCF yield 19.6%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.94
Upside
-13.0%
Downside
13.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 2.20>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.94 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Insider at 7.5, and Growth at 4.9; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.0, Momentum at 3.8, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 out of 10 as multiples compress further.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% at the August 10, 2026 report, breaking the 4-quarter miss streak.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Reached Target
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Fcf Positive Earnings Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 at the next reporting update.
- P5Elevated Implied Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 60% for more than 2 consecutive quarters.