Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.27
IDA · Why this verdict
Why IDACORP (IDA) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IDACORP sits above its resistance-based price target with negative risk/reward, deeply negative free cash flow, a potentially unsafe dividend, and near-total dependence on a single state regulator — the setup favors patience rather than adding exposure at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is trading above its resistance-based price target, leaving the projected return negative — the implied downside from current levels exceeds the implied upside, making new buying unattractive regardless of the underlying business quality. Price targets | The analyst consensus price target is revised above $155 within 2 quarters, restoring meaningful positive headroom from the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities can trade through resistance levels for extended periods when rate cases progress favorably; the positive price momentum and rising volume-accumulation pattern may sustain the premium until the next catalyst re-anchors the target higher. | ||
The business derives roughly 95% of its revenue from Idaho, creating binary exposure to a single state regulator — an adverse rate determination from that commission could materially compress authorized returns with no geographic diversification to absorb the impact. Bear case | Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that Idaho regulatory outcomes are not impeding earnings generation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegulated utilities typically maintain constructive, long-standing regulatory relationships; a compact single-jurisdiction footprint may also simplify capital planning and reduce the complexity burden that multi-state peers carry. | ||
Free cash flow is deeply negative — running at negative 314% relative to net income — meaning the business is not converting reported earnings into cash, which raises questions about both dividend sustainability and long-term capital structure. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio rises above negative 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation is closing. | →Stable |
| CounterCapital-intensive regulated utility infrastructure programs routinely produce negative near-term free cash flow during elevated build-out phases; if the investment cycle peaks, cash conversion can recover sharply and be supported by rate base growth. | ||
The dividend yield carries an explicit warning that the payout may be unsafe — a concern compounded by the deeply negative free cash flow — making income-oriented holding at a price above the resistance target a doubly unfavorable position. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend payout ratio falls below 100% on a free-cash-flow basis for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the payout is covered by actual cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterRegulated utilities can sustain dividends through debt financing during capital-intensive build periods, and a constructive rate case approval could restore cash coverage sooner than the market currently expects. | ||
The stock is trading above its resistance-based price target, leaving the projected return negative — the implied downside from current levels exceeds the implied upside, making new buying unattractive regardless of the underlying business quality.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus price target is revised above $155 within 2 quarters, restoring meaningful positive headroom from the current price.
CounterRegulated utilities can trade through resistance levels for extended periods when rate cases progress favorably; the positive price momentum and rising volume-accumulation pattern may sustain the premium until the next catalyst re-anchors the target higher.
The business derives roughly 95% of its revenue from Idaho, creating binary exposure to a single state regulator — an adverse rate determination from that commission could materially compress authorized returns with no geographic diversification to absorb the impact.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that Idaho regulatory outcomes are not impeding earnings generation.
CounterRegulated utilities typically maintain constructive, long-standing regulatory relationships; a compact single-jurisdiction footprint may also simplify capital planning and reduce the complexity burden that multi-state peers carry.
Free cash flow is deeply negative — running at negative 314% relative to net income — meaning the business is not converting reported earnings into cash, which raises questions about both dividend sustainability and long-term capital structure.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio rises above negative 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the gap between reported earnings and actual cash generation is closing.
CounterCapital-intensive regulated utility infrastructure programs routinely produce negative near-term free cash flow during elevated build-out phases; if the investment cycle peaks, cash conversion can recover sharply and be supported by rate base growth.
The dividend yield carries an explicit warning that the payout may be unsafe — a concern compounded by the deeply negative free cash flow — making income-oriented holding at a price above the resistance target a doubly unfavorable position.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend payout ratio falls below 100% on a free-cash-flow basis for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the payout is covered by actual cash generation.
CounterRegulated utilities can sustain dividends through debt financing during capital-intensive build periods, and a constructive rate case approval could restore cash coverage sooner than the market currently expects.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 7.9 |
| Net margin | 9.3 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -314% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
| EPS growth | 4.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $424,463 (0.005% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.7 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 7.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 3.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.43
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Insider at 7.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Sentiment at 6.9, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.4, Momentum at 3.2, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.43 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Target Negative Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $155 (the current options max-pain level), restoring more than 8% upside headroom from current price levels.
- P2Geographic Regulatory Concentration
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current negative 7% trajectory.
- P3Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above negative 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating material improvement in cash conversion.
- P4Dividend Safety Yield Trap
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 100% on a free-cash-flow basis for 2 consecutive fiscal quarters, removing the yield-trap warning.