Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
ICFI · Why this verdict
Why ICF International (ICFI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A forward earnings multiple of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14 frame an inexpensive consulting business with 24% upside to analyst targets, but three consecutive quarters of earnings misses and a 10% revenue contraction suggest the valuation discount reflects genuine operational deterioration rather than temporary mispricing.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year, signaling that consulting demand conditions or the company's competitive positioning have meaningfully weakened, limiting the operating leverage available to improve margins from current low levels. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth turns positive — above 0% — in the next reported quarter, indicating the contraction has reached a bottom. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume accumulation visible in rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest that market participants may be positioning for a business inflection ahead of what the trailing revenue data currently shows. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 24% upside to the $89.46 price target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.6-to-1. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes at least 15% of the gap to its $89.46 analyst target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward peer multiples. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA low multiple with a 0.14 PEG is appealing in isolation, but three consecutive earnings misses and contracting revenue suggest the earnings denominator may be declining — which would push the effective forward multiple higher and make the current price appear less inexpensive than it screens. | ||
The three most recent quarters produced earnings misses of -3.2%, -1.5%, and -3.7% respectively, establishing a consecutive miss pattern that indicates the business is consistently delivering below analyst expectations. Earnings | The next quarterly report delivers a positive earnings surprise above 3%, breaking the miss streak and signaling an operational reset. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe magnitude of each miss is modest — less than 4% — suggesting these may reflect minor execution variability rather than structural deterioration; the single prior beat of +5.2% demonstrated the business can outperform when conditions align. | ||
A put/call ratio of 2.50 — well above neutral — indicates that options market participants are positioned bearishly, implying significant institutional skepticism about the near-term outlook and creating a technical overhang on the stock. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within two quarters, reflecting a reduction in hedging pressure as the fundamental picture clarifies. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in smaller-capitalization names can sometimes represent hedging by existing long holders rather than outright short bets; if the company begins to beat estimates, put holders may exit rapidly, providing a technical tailwind. | ||
Revenue declined approximately 10% year-over-year, signaling that consulting demand conditions or the company's competitive positioning have meaningfully weakened, limiting the operating leverage available to improve margins from current low levels.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth turns positive — above 0% — in the next reported quarter, indicating the contraction has reached a bottom.
CounterVolume accumulation visible in rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD suggest that market participants may be positioning for a business inflection ahead of what the trailing revenue data currently shows.
At a forward P/E of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 24% upside to the $89.46 price target and a risk/reward ratio of approximately 3.6-to-1.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes at least 15% of the gap to its $89.46 analyst target over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows toward peer multiples.
CounterA low multiple with a 0.14 PEG is appealing in isolation, but three consecutive earnings misses and contracting revenue suggest the earnings denominator may be declining — which would push the effective forward multiple higher and make the current price appear less inexpensive than it screens.
The three most recent quarters produced earnings misses of -3.2%, -1.5%, and -3.7% respectively, establishing a consecutive miss pattern that indicates the business is consistently delivering below analyst expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The next quarterly report delivers a positive earnings surprise above 3%, breaking the miss streak and signaling an operational reset.
CounterThe magnitude of each miss is modest — less than 4% — suggesting these may reflect minor execution variability rather than structural deterioration; the single prior beat of +5.2% demonstrated the business can outperform when conditions align.
A put/call ratio of 2.50 — well above neutral — indicates that options market participants are positioned bearishly, implying significant institutional skepticism about the near-term outlook and creating a technical overhang on the stock.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 1.5 within two quarters, reflecting a reduction in hedging pressure as the fundamental picture clarifies.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in smaller-capitalization names can sometimes represent hedging by existing long holders rather than outright short bets; if the company begins to beat estimates, put holders may exit rapidly, providing a technical tailwind.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 6.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $502,784 (0.035% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.83
Upside
+12.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 3.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Insider at 6.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Peer rank at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Compelling Low Multiple ValuationTripped
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x from the current 9.4x, reducing the stated valuation discount to peers.
- P2Three Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 3% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the miss streak.
- P3Revenue Contracting Ten Percent
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the contraction.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 2 consecutive months, indicating that bearish hedging pressure has substantially resolved.