Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
IBEX · Why this verdict
Why IBEX (IBEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IBEX combines a perfect earnings-beat streak and an attractively valued, high-ROE profile with a technical pullback, limited remaining upside as a small-cap name, and bearish insider selling, netting out to a maintain-but-don't-add stance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
IBEX screens as attractively valued with a meaningful margin of safety and an excellent ROE. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated and price should benefit from the margin of safety over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn earnings-quality warning on cash conversion suggests reported earnings aren't fully backed by cash generation, which could undermine the valuation case. | ||
IBEX has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 4 quarters with a strong average surprise, and the engine flags this as a perfect beat streak. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should continue into the next earnings report roughly two months out. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the analyst target already reached, continued beats may already be priced in, especially given the negative asymmetry ratio. | ||
IBEX is below its 200-day moving average, but the engine characterizes this as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, with volume accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average while the moving average continues to rise, confirming the pullback thesis. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low technical score suggests the balance of technical evidence still leans negative despite the not-confirmed-weakness framing. | ||
The analyst target has effectively already been reached, and IBEX's market cap sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, with a negative asymmetry ratio. Edge rationale | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again, or the company should grow enough to attract institutional interest, for the constraint to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA fifth consecutive earnings beat could catalyze analyst target increases, reopening upside room despite the small-cap constraint. | ||
Insider activity skews bearish, with net shares down meaningfully over the trailing 90 days across multiple sell transactions and no offsetting buys. Insider transaction read | The insider signal should shift toward neutral or bullish, with buying activity emerging, for sentiment to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider selling at a company with an excellent ROE and consistent earnings beats could reflect routine diversification rather than a considered bearish view on valuation. | ||
IBEX screens as attractively valued with a meaningful margin of safety and an excellent ROE.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated and price should benefit from the margin of safety over the next 12 months.
CounterAn earnings-quality warning on cash conversion suggests reported earnings aren't fully backed by cash generation, which could undermine the valuation case.
IBEX has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 4 quarters with a strong average surprise, and the engine flags this as a perfect beat streak.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue into the next earnings report roughly two months out.
CounterWith the analyst target already reached, continued beats may already be priced in, especially given the negative asymmetry ratio.
IBEX is below its 200-day moving average, but the engine characterizes this as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, with volume accumulating.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average while the moving average continues to rise, confirming the pullback thesis.
CounterA low technical score suggests the balance of technical evidence still leans negative despite the not-confirmed-weakness framing.
The analyst target has effectively already been reached, and IBEX's market cap sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, with a negative asymmetry ratio.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again, or the company should grow enough to attract institutional interest, for the constraint to ease.
CounterA fifth consecutive earnings beat could catalyze analyst target increases, reopening upside room despite the small-cap constraint.
Insider activity skews bearish, with net shares down meaningfully over the trailing 90 days across multiple sell transactions and no offsetting buys.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift toward neutral or bullish, with buying activity emerging, for sentiment to improve.
CounterInsider selling at a company with an excellent ROE and consistent earnings beats could reflect routine diversification rather than a considered bearish view on valuation.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.2 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 3.0 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.3 |
| FCF quality | 4.1 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 52% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 8.1 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $3,882,052 (0.640% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.8 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.25
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.64%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-3.67
Upside
-21.8%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-3.7=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:0.64%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -3.67 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Peer rank at 6.9, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Insider at 3.5, Momentum at 4.3, and Sentiment at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe upcoming quarterly earnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5%, breaking the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation With Margin Of Safety
Trip ifFree-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio falls below 40%, deepening the earnings-quality warning and undermining the valuation case.
- P3Pullback In Uptrend Not Confirmed Weakness
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% below the 200-day moving average while the moving average itself turns negative, confirming a genuine breakdown rather than a pullback.
- P4Limited Upside Small Cap Constraint
Trip ifAnalyst price target is raised by more than 15%, or the asymmetry ratio turns positive above 0.5, reopening meaningful upside despite the small-cap constraint.
- P5Bearish Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider buy transactions rise to more than 5 over a 90-day period while exceeding sell count, reversing the current bearish signal.