Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
IART · Why this verdict
Why Integra LifeSciences Holdings C (IART) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Integra LifeSciences has beaten earnings four quarters running, trades at a forward P/E of 5.0x and sits 18.5% below its $14.11 analyst target, but momentum is weak after a 42% drawdown and 70% of revenue comes from one segment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Integra beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 14.8% and $0.59 actual against $0.56 estimated last quarter. Earnings | EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus over the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest surprise of 5.5% is the smallest of the streak, and an analyst downgrade warning is flagged, so the beat cushion may be narrowing. | ||
Integra trades at a forward P/E of 5.0x with a PEG of 0.05, flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should rise toward 8x or higher as price recovers while earnings hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA forward P/E of 5.0x after a 42% drawdown may signal that the market expects earnings estimates to fall. | ||
The $11.91 price sits 18.5% below the $14.11 analyst target against a 12.0% modeled downside, a reward-to-risk of 1.5. Targets | Price should move toward the $14.11 target as earnings continue to beat over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 36% before the haircut has not prevented a drawdown, and the downgrade warning suggests targets could be lowered. | ||
The CSS segment makes up 70.0% of the product mix, concentrating revenue in one business. Bear case | The segment should hold revenue without a material decline over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA setback in the CSS segment would hit most of the company's revenue because there is no diversification. | ||
Momentum is 2.4/10 with falling on-balance volume, short interest is 13% and the put/call ratio is 2.14. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and short interest should fall below 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDistribution volume with elevated short interest and put buying shows active bearish positioning. | ||
Integra beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 14.8% and $0.59 actual against $0.56 estimated last quarter.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus over the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe latest surprise of 5.5% is the smallest of the streak, and an analyst downgrade warning is flagged, so the beat cushion may be narrowing.
Integra trades at a forward P/E of 5.0x with a PEG of 0.05, flagged as attractively valued.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should rise toward 8x or higher as price recovers while earnings hold.
CounterA forward P/E of 5.0x after a 42% drawdown may signal that the market expects earnings estimates to fall.
The $11.91 price sits 18.5% below the $14.11 analyst target against a 12.0% modeled downside, a reward-to-risk of 1.5.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $14.11 target as earnings continue to beat over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst upside of 36% before the haircut has not prevented a drawdown, and the downgrade warning suggests targets could be lowered.
The CSS segment makes up 70.0% of the product mix, concentrating revenue in one business.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The segment should hold revenue without a material decline over the next 12 months.
CounterA setback in the CSS segment would hit most of the company's revenue because there is no diversification.
Momentum is 2.4/10 with falling on-balance volume, short interest is 13% and the put/call ratio is 2.14.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and short interest should fall below 10%.
CounterDistribution volume with elevated short interest and put buying shows active bearish positioning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 0.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 817% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 6.2 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.14
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.9 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:118d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.02
Upside
+11.4%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -40% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.02 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Catalyst at 7.6, and Technical at 5.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.9, Growth at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Deeply Discounted Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x without an increase in earnings estimates.
- P3Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target is cut below $12.00 from the current $14.11.
- P4Single Segment Concentration
Trip ifCSS segment revenue declines more than 10% YoY.
- P5Weak Momentum And Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below the $11.22 stop level from the current $11.91.