Value
9.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
HY · Why this verdict
Why Hyster-Yale (HY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
HY screens as attractively valued with meaningful analyst-implied upside per the sentiment assessment. Sentiment breakdown | The value score should stay elevated and price should progress toward the analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples in heavy-machinery names can reflect legitimately depressed earnings expectations rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
Quality sits far below the engine's floor, with a weak Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The quality score should recover above the engine's minimum floor for the exit recommendation to be invalidated. | →Stable |
| CounterThe positive asymmetry ratio, where upside outweighs downside, suggests the market may already be pricing in the weak quality, leaving room for a re-rating if execution improves. | ||
Revenue is declining at a double-digit rate, reflecting cyclical pressure in farm and heavy construction machinery end markets. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stabilize or turn positive over the next few quarters for the deteriorating narrative to be challenged. | →Stable |
| CounterIndustrial equipment demand is highly cyclical, so a recovery in end-market capex could reverse the decline without any company-specific catalyst. | ||
HY failed the engine's momentum gate, with falling on-balance volume and price below its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | The momentum score should climb back above the engine's threshold within 12 months if fundamentals stabilize enough to attract buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely depressed momentum readings can mark capitulation lows that precede sharp reversals once selling pressure is exhausted. | ||
HY has posted an even split of beats and misses over the last 4 quarters with a deeply negative average surprise, and insider activity skews bearish with more sell than buy transactions over the trailing 90 days. Insider transaction read | Earnings surprises should turn consistently positive and insider activity should shift toward net buying for the overall picture to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterThe number of insider sell transactions is only slightly higher than buys, a fairly balanced picture that may not represent strong bearish conviction. | ||
HY screens as attractively valued with meaningful analyst-implied upside per the sentiment assessment.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated and price should progress toward the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterCheap multiples in heavy-machinery names can reflect legitimately depressed earnings expectations rather than a genuine mispricing.
Quality sits far below the engine's floor, with a weak Piotroski F-Score and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should recover above the engine's minimum floor for the exit recommendation to be invalidated.
CounterThe positive asymmetry ratio, where upside outweighs downside, suggests the market may already be pricing in the weak quality, leaving room for a re-rating if execution improves.
Revenue is declining at a double-digit rate, reflecting cyclical pressure in farm and heavy construction machinery end markets.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stabilize or turn positive over the next few quarters for the deteriorating narrative to be challenged.
CounterIndustrial equipment demand is highly cyclical, so a recovery in end-market capex could reverse the decline without any company-specific catalyst.
HY failed the engine's momentum gate, with falling on-balance volume and price below its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The momentum score should climb back above the engine's threshold within 12 months if fundamentals stabilize enough to attract buyers.
CounterExtremely depressed momentum readings can mark capitulation lows that precede sharp reversals once selling pressure is exhausted.
HY has posted an even split of beats and misses over the last 4 quarters with a deeply negative average surprise, and insider activity skews bearish with more sell than buy transactions over the trailing 90 days.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises should turn consistently positive and insider activity should shift toward net buying for the overall picture to improve.
CounterThe number of insider sell transactions is only slightly higher than buys, a fairly balanced picture that may not represent strong bearish conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HY screens as cheap with meaningful analyst-implied upside, but quality well below the engine's investment floor, declining revenue, failed momentum, and a mixed earnings/insider picture argue for exiting rather than holding the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -13%
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 5.2 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 44%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $766 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.02
Upside
+22.5%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.61>1.3, MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Technical at 7.7, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.3, Momentum at 2.6, and Peer rank at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% without the analyst target being revised down, confirming the cheap valuation was a value trap.
- P2Quality Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0, clearing the engine's minimum quality floor.
- P3Declining Revenue Industrial Cyclicality
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Weak Momentum Failed Gate
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current downtrend.
- P5Mixed Earnings History With Bearish Insiders
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, and insider transactions turn net-positive.