Value
9.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
HY · Why this verdict
Why Hyster-Yale (HY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hyster-Yale trades at a low valuation with 47.0% upside to a $42.50 analyst target, but quality is 1.3/10, revenue is falling 15% and the last two of four quarters were misses with widening losses.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The $28.92 price sits 47.0% below the $42.50 analyst target against a 9.7% modeled downside, a reward-to-risk of 4.8. Targets | Price should close part of the gap to the target as earnings recover over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA target 47% above the price after a 15% revenue decline may be stale, and analyst optimism has not translated into beats. | ||
Hyster-Yale is valued at a forward P/E of 14.0x with a PEG of 0.11 and a top price-to-sales score, flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 16x as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterThe cheap look rests on forecast earnings growth after a period of GAAP losses, and a 5.0% dividend yield may be at risk. | ||
Quality scores 1.3/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should rise above 5/9 and margins turn positive over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterZero ROE and margin credit in a cyclical equipment maker mean quality is unlikely to improve until volumes recover. | ||
Revenue is declining 15%, ranking Hyster-Yale at the bottom of peers on growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue should stabilize and return to positive YoY growth within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy-equipment demand is cyclical, and a continued capital-spending pullback could push the decline further. | ||
Hyster-Yale split the last 4 quarters 2 beats and 2 misses, with the latest quarter a miss at -$1.64 against -$1.13. Earnings | Losses should narrow, with EPS at or above consensus in the next 2 reports, starting November 2026. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEPS has been -$1.64, -$1.64 and -$2.06 in recent quarters, so even beats come with large losses. | ||
The $28.92 price sits 47.0% below the $42.50 analyst target against a 9.7% modeled downside, a reward-to-risk of 4.8.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the target as earnings recover over 12 months.
CounterA target 47% above the price after a 15% revenue decline may be stale, and analyst optimism has not translated into beats.
Hyster-Yale is valued at a forward P/E of 14.0x with a PEG of 0.11 and a top price-to-sales score, flagged as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 16x as earnings recover.
CounterThe cheap look rests on forecast earnings growth after a period of GAAP losses, and a 5.0% dividend yield may be at risk.
Quality scores 1.3/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should rise above 5/9 and margins turn positive over 12 months.
CounterZero ROE and margin credit in a cyclical equipment maker mean quality is unlikely to improve until volumes recover.
Revenue is declining 15%, ranking Hyster-Yale at the bottom of peers on growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should stabilize and return to positive YoY growth within 12 months.
CounterHeavy-equipment demand is cyclical, and a continued capital-spending pullback could push the decline further.
Hyster-Yale split the last 4 quarters 2 beats and 2 misses, with the latest quarter a miss at -$1.64 against -$1.13.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Losses should narrow, with EPS at or above consensus in the next 2 reports, starting November 2026.
CounterEPS has been -$1.64, -$1.64 and -$2.06 in recent quarters, so even beats come with large losses.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -15%
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 70%
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 4.6 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
5.38
Upside
+44.9%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.63>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.1<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.5 and asymmetric R:R of 5.38.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Sentiment at 6.6, and Technical at 6.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.3, Momentum at 2.1, and Peer rank at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target is cut below $32.00 from the current $42.50.
- P2Cheap Valuation Metrics
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x as earnings estimates are cut.
- P3Weak Business Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score stays below 4/9 for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record Widening Losses
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.