Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
HURN · Why this verdict
Why Huron Consulting Group (HURN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Huron Consulting screens as deeply undervalued on growth-adjusted metrics with a four-quarter beat streak and 46% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed price downtrend and elevated leverage have blocked the near-term entry — the setup rewards patience while technical repair unfolds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap begins to close as the forward multiple re-rates toward 15x over the next 12 months, supported by continued earnings beats. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG can reflect thin analyst coverage — with only 4 active analysts — and the risk that estimates are set too optimistically; if the 72% analyst upside target is revised lower as coverage broadens, the gap may be smaller than it currently appears. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds. Earnings | Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with average surprise staying above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed the smallest beat in the trailing run (just under 8%); if leverage at 2.2x debt-to-equity constrains operational flexibility during a softer revenue quarter, the cadence could break precisely when the stock most needs it. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is resolved when the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions and the slope of that average turns positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInternal momentum is already improving — the MACD is rising and RSI is at 56 (neither oversold nor overextended) — suggesting price may be turning before the moving average crossover completes, potentially accelerating the recovery. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback. Bear case | Leverage concern eases if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet is otherwise sound on most accounting dimensions, and strong liquidity metrics suggest debt service is manageable at current levels. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap begins to close as the forward multiple re-rates toward 15x over the next 12 months, supported by continued earnings beats.
CounterA very low PEG can reflect thin analyst coverage — with only 4 active analysts — and the risk that estimates are set too optimistically; if the 72% analyst upside target is revised lower as coverage broadens, the gap may be smaller than it currently appears.
Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with average surprise staying above 5%.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed the smallest beat in the trailing run (just under 8%); if leverage at 2.2x debt-to-equity constrains operational flexibility during a softer revenue quarter, the cadence could break precisely when the stock most needs it.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is resolved when the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions and the slope of that average turns positive.
CounterInternal momentum is already improving — the MACD is rising and RSI is at 56 (neither oversold nor overextended) — suggesting price may be turning before the moving average crossover completes, potentially accelerating the recovery.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Leverage concern eases if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x over the next 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet is otherwise sound on most accounting dimensions, and strong liquidity metrics suggest debt service is manageable at current levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 4.7 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.4 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 131% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 82)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 82 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $335,093 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 24.04
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-11.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.2, Catalyst at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Compelling Valuation Gap
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation gap has been substantially closed.
- P2Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading sessions.
- P4Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x.