Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
HURN · Why this verdict
Why Huron Consulting Group (HURN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Huron Consulting screens as deeply undervalued on growth-adjusted metrics with a four-quarter beat streak and 46% upside to the analyst target, but a confirmed price downtrend and elevated leverage have blocked the near-term entry — the setup rewards patience while technical repair unfolds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap begins to close as the forward multiple re-rates toward 15x over the next 12 months, supported by continued earnings beats. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA very low PEG can reflect thin analyst coverage — with only 4 active analysts — and the risk that estimates are set too optimistically; if the 72% analyst upside target is revised lower as coverage broadens, the gap may be smaller than it currently appears. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds. Earnings | Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with average surprise staying above 5%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed the smallest beat in the trailing run (just under 8%); if leverage at 2.2x debt-to-equity constrains operational flexibility during a softer revenue quarter, the cadence could break precisely when the stock most needs it. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time. Momentum breakdown | This pillar is resolved when the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions and the slope of that average turns positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInternal momentum is already improving — the MACD is rising and RSI is at 56 (neither oversold nor overextended) — suggesting price may be turning before the moving average crossover completes, potentially accelerating the recovery. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback. Bear case | Leverage concern eases if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet is otherwise sound on most accounting dimensions, and strong liquidity metrics suggest debt service is manageable at current levels. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 10.5x alongside a PEG of 0.14 suggests the market is attaching almost no credit to the company's earnings trajectory, creating a potentially large gap between intrinsic and current value if the earnings growth profile holds.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap begins to close as the forward multiple re-rates toward 15x over the next 12 months, supported by continued earnings beats.
CounterA very low PEG can reflect thin analyst coverage — with only 4 active analysts — and the risk that estimates are set too optimistically; if the 72% analyst upside target is revised lower as coverage broadens, the gap may be smaller than it currently appears.
Four consecutive quarterly beats averaging over 9% positive surprise — including two quarters with double-digit outperformance — indicate management has been consistently under-promising and over-delivering, a track record that supports revaluation if the pattern holds.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters, with average surprise staying above 5%.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed the smallest beat in the trailing run (just under 8%); if leverage at 2.2x debt-to-equity constrains operational flexibility during a softer revenue quarter, the cadence could break precisely when the stock most needs it.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at -2.2% over 30 days — a pattern consistent with a confirmed downtrend that historically requires a fundamental catalyst to reverse rather than simply the passage of time.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- This pillar is resolved when the stock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions and the slope of that average turns positive.
CounterInternal momentum is already improving — the MACD is rising and RSI is at 56 (neither oversold nor overextended) — suggesting price may be turning before the moving average crossover completes, potentially accelerating the recovery.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.2x imposes a meaningful penalty on the quality profile and narrows the cushion if revenues soften — in a consulting business where revenue is tied to client utilization, that leverage amplifies the earnings impact of any demand pullback.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Leverage concern eases if the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x over the next 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates the balance sheet is otherwise sound on most accounting dimensions, and strong liquidity metrics suggest debt service is manageable at current levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.8 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 87)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 87 (late-cycle distribution risk)
- ▸Volume surge (4.5x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $380,546 (0.019% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (10.5%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.83
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.54
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 87
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($2.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.54 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.5, Growth at 7.8, and Catalyst at 7.8; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.7, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Compelling Valuation Gap
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the valuation gap has been substantially closed.
- P2Consistent Earnings Outperformance
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Price Downtrend
Trip ifStock closes above the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading sessions.
- P4Elevated Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.5x.