Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
HSHP · Why this verdict
Why Himalaya Shipping (HSHP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Himalaya Shipping is a high-quality, fast-growing dry bulk shipper with a 33% ROE and 80% revenue growth, but the $16.89 price is above the $14.36 analyst target, leverage is high and insiders are selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 8.3/10 on an excellent ROE of 33%, 31% margins, 124% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a Rule of 40 reading of 119. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and cash conversion above 100% of net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping returns follow volatile charter rates, so peak-cycle ROE of 33% may not persist when rates normalize. | ||
Revenue is growing 80% YoY, making Himalaya an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth of 80% likely reflects fleet additions and a strong rate environment that are hard to repeat on a larger base. | ||
At $16.89 the stock trades 14.9% above the $14.36 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against an 8.3% modeled downside. Targets | Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets often lag in a rate upcycle, and continued strong earnings could lift them quickly above the current price. | ||
A leverage penalty applies with debt-to-equity at 4.2, which reduces the score by 1.5 points. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should fall below 3.5 as cash flow pays down debt over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith debt-to-equity at 4.2, a downturn in charter rates would strain debt service quickly. | ||
Insiders sold $1,585,000 of stock, 0.199% of market cap, and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, high but unsafe. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should stay modest and dividend safety should improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA high yield that is unsafe could be cut if charter rates fall, pushing income-focused holders to sell. | ||
Quality scores 8.3/10 on an excellent ROE of 33%, 31% margins, 124% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a Rule of 40 reading of 119.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and cash conversion above 100% of net income over 12 months.
CounterShipping returns follow volatile charter rates, so peak-cycle ROE of 33% may not persist when rates normalize.
Revenue is growing 80% YoY, making Himalaya an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 25% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth of 80% likely reflects fleet additions and a strong rate environment that are hard to repeat on a larger base.
At $16.89 the stock trades 14.9% above the $14.36 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against an 8.3% modeled downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current price.
CounterTargets often lag in a rate upcycle, and continued strong earnings could lift them quickly above the current price.
A leverage penalty applies with debt-to-equity at 4.2, which reduces the score by 1.5 points.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should fall below 3.5 as cash flow pays down debt over 12 months.
CounterWith debt-to-equity at 4.2, a downturn in charter rates would strain debt service quickly.
Insiders sold $1,585,000 of stock, 0.199% of market cap, and the dividend is flagged as a yield trap, high but unsafe.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay modest and dividend safety should improve over the next 12 months.
CounterA high yield that is unsafe could be cut if charter rates fall, pushing income-focused holders to sell.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 80% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,585,000 (0.199% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 0.8 |
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-14.9% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.95
Upside
-14.9%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.9=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -1.95.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.7, and Quality at 8.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.7, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.95 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Return Elite Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 33%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% below $16.89 with the $14.36 analyst target unchanged.
- P4High Leverage Drag
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 5.0 from the current 4.2.
- P5Insider Selling And Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over 90 days, or the dividend is cut by more than 25%.