Value
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
HSHP · Why this verdict
Why Himalaya Shipping (HSHP) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Himalaya Shipping shows strong underlying margins, cash conversion, and revenue growth, but the shares have already reached their analyst-derived target and the engine flags an unfavorable risk/reward alongside extreme insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins run strong at roughly 20%, cash conversion is excellent at 171% of net income, and the Rule of 40 score of 87 is characterized as elite, alongside a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Margins, cash conversion, and the Piotroski score should hold at or near these levels over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA leverage penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.4 and heavy insider selling raise a balance-sheet and governance caveat that could weigh on the quality picture even if margins hold. | ||
Revenue growth is strong at 53% year over year, and the peer comparison identifies this company as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay at a double-digit pace over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings estimates are trending down, which could signal the recent growth pace is decelerating even as trailing revenue growth looks strong. | ||
Trading volume shows accumulation via a rising on-balance-volume reading, and the shares trade above their 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and volume accumulation should persist over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe shares recently posted an extreme 5.5% gap up that the data flags may pull back, which could reverse the near-term momentum reading. | ||
The risk/reward setup is currently unfavorable, with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.1 that failed the engine's asymmetry gate, and insider selling equal to 0.595% of market cap that registers as extreme. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive and insider selling severity should ease from extreme over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe insider selling in the period was offset by an insider purchase in the same window, and the net signal reads as neutral rather than uniformly negative. | ||
The shares have already reached their analyst-derived target, leaving only 4.4% upside to the take-profit level against 7.0% downside to the stop-loss. Targets | Upside to the take-profit level should expand meaningfully beyond the current level over the next 12 months for this pillar's caution to be wrong. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe take-profit level is set by a resistance method and can be revised upward if the shares continue to climb, meaning today's limited-upside read may understate the real ceiling. | ||
Margins run strong at roughly 20%, cash conversion is excellent at 171% of net income, and the Rule of 40 score of 87 is characterized as elite, alongside a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins, cash conversion, and the Piotroski score should hold at or near these levels over the next 12 months.
CounterA leverage penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.4 and heavy insider selling raise a balance-sheet and governance caveat that could weigh on the quality picture even if margins hold.
Revenue growth is strong at 53% year over year, and the peer comparison identifies this company as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay at a double-digit pace over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold.
CounterEarnings estimates are trending down, which could signal the recent growth pace is decelerating even as trailing revenue growth looks strong.
Trading volume shows accumulation via a rising on-balance-volume reading, and the shares trade above their 200-day moving average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and volume accumulation should persist over the next 12 months.
CounterThe shares recently posted an extreme 5.5% gap up that the data flags may pull back, which could reverse the near-term momentum reading.
The risk/reward setup is currently unfavorable, with a negative asymmetry ratio of -0.1 that failed the engine's asymmetry gate, and insider selling equal to 0.595% of market cap that registers as extreme.
↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive and insider selling severity should ease from extreme over the next 12 months.
CounterThe insider selling in the period was offset by an insider purchase in the same window, and the net signal reads as neutral rather than uniformly negative.
The shares have already reached their analyst-derived target, leaving only 4.4% upside to the take-profit level against 7.0% downside to the stop-loss.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Upside to the take-profit level should expand meaningfully beyond the current level over the next 12 months for this pillar's caution to be wrong.
CounterThe take-profit level is set by a resistance method and can be revised upward if the shares continue to climb, meaning today's limited-upside read may understate the real ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 80% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $56,800 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| beta | 7.2 |
| debt equity | 0.8 |
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Fundamentals strong but target reached (-10.3% upside).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|V8:TARGET_REACHED|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.10
Upside
-10.3%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of -1.10 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.8, and Quality at 8.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.7, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.10 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Margin Profile
Trip ifCash conversion (FCF/NI) falls below 100% from the current 171%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 53%.
- P3Constructive Volume And Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 trading days.
- P4Unfavorable Asymmetry And Insider Selling
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -0.1.
- P5Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit level exceeds 15% from the current 4.4%.