Value
4.5/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
HIVE · Why this verdict
Why HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HIVE Digital shows strong revenue growth of 74% YoY, but it has missed earnings in all 4 recent quarters, quality is below the engine's floor, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend down about 75% from its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 2.7/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and zero ROE, operating-margin and net-margin credit. Quality breakdown | Quality should rise toward 4.0 as operating margin turns toward break-even over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no moat and a commodity-like mining business, margins depend on external prices that the company does not control. | ||
Revenue grew 74% YoY, making HIVE an industry growth leader among its peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months as capacity is added. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is low-confidence (0.33) and may reflect volatile crypto-linked activity rather than durable demand, with no profit to show for it. | ||
HIVE missed EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the August 2026 actual of -$0.19 against a -$0.11 estimate. Earnings | Losses should narrow so EPS comes in at or better than consensus within the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFour straight misses with an average surprise of -234.7% show persistent inability to meet expectations, so a turnaround may not arrive. | ||
Concentration risk is high: Fireblocks accounts for 89.0% of counterparty exposure and equipment comes from a single supplier family (Bitmain). Bear case | Counterparty and supplier dependence should ease without disruption to operations over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA failure at the custodian or a supply interruption from the equipment vendor could halt operations or strand assets. | ||
Momentum is 2.0/10, with price below the 200-day average, a 30-day moving-average slope of -1.3% and a drawdown of about 75% from the 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average if the downtrend is to reverse over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 5 signals capitulation that can precede a sharp rebound, and analyst upside is flagged at 263%, though the $7.00 raw target was rejected as implausible. | ||
Quality scores 2.7/10, below the 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and zero ROE, operating-margin and net-margin credit.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should rise toward 4.0 as operating margin turns toward break-even over 12 months.
CounterWith no moat and a commodity-like mining business, margins depend on external prices that the company does not control.
Revenue grew 74% YoY, making HIVE an industry growth leader among its peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months as capacity is added.
CounterGrowth is low-confidence (0.33) and may reflect volatile crypto-linked activity rather than durable demand, with no profit to show for it.
HIVE missed EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with the August 2026 actual of -$0.19 against a -$0.11 estimate.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Losses should narrow so EPS comes in at or better than consensus within the next 4 quarters.
CounterFour straight misses with an average surprise of -234.7% show persistent inability to meet expectations, so a turnaround may not arrive.
Concentration risk is high: Fireblocks accounts for 89.0% of counterparty exposure and equipment comes from a single supplier family (Bitmain).
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Counterparty and supplier dependence should ease without disruption to operations over 12 months.
CounterA failure at the custodian or a supply interruption from the equipment vendor could halt operations or strand assets.
Momentum is 2.0/10, with price below the 200-day average, a 30-day moving-average slope of -1.3% and a drawdown of about 75% from the 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average if the downtrend is to reverse over 12 months.
CounterRSI of 5 signals capitulation that can precede a sharp rebound, and analyst upside is flagged at 263%, though the $7.00 raw target was rejected as implausible.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 74% YoY
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 225%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $578,195 (0.099% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 5.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 110%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -73% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the DEATH_CROSS gate's HARD_BLOCK outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.1, and Insider at 5.9; the weakest are Quality at 2.7, Catalyst at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 more of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Counterparty And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifFireblocks counterparty exposure stays above 80% of the total after 12 months.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice makes a new low below $1.80, the stop level, from the current $1.93.