Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
HIPO · Why this verdict
Why Hippo Holdings (HIPO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hippo has beaten earnings estimates four quarters running and shows excellent returns on equity at a low forward multiple, but the price of $38.44 is already above the $34.74 analyst target and reinsurer concentration adds risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Hippo beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.79 actual against a $0.17 estimate in the July 2026 quarter. Earnings | EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus over the next 4 quarters, starting with the report due in 5 days. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe huge percentage surprises come off very low estimates, so beats may reflect conservative consensus on a volatile insurer rather than durable earnings power. | ||
Quality is anchored by an excellent ROE of 30%, 24% margins, 130% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | ROE should remain above 20% and cash conversion above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterProperty and casualty insurance is a binary, catastrophe-exposed industry, so one bad weather season could erase a year of returns. | ||
At $38.44 the stock trades 9.6% above the $34.74 analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside against a modeled 15% downside. Targets | Further gains over 12 months require analysts to lift targets above the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means targets lag fast-improving results, and upward revisions after strong beats could quickly close the gap. | ||
Hippo depends on a single reinsurer for its builder channel, a flagged counterparty concentration risk alongside an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00. Bear case | The reinsurance relationship should stay intact with no loss of capacity or adverse repricing over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterIf that reinsurer pulled back or repriced, Hippo could lose underwriting capacity in a key distribution channel with few quick substitutes. | ||
Momentum scores 7.3/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 94 is overbought and the stock is 2.4% from its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day moving average as institutions keep accumulating. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 94 signals an extreme overbought reading, and put/call of 2.00 with 63% implied volatility suggests traders are hedging a pullback. | ||
Hippo beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.79 actual against a $0.17 estimate in the July 2026 quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus over the next 4 quarters, starting with the report due in 5 days.
CounterThe huge percentage surprises come off very low estimates, so beats may reflect conservative consensus on a volatile insurer rather than durable earnings power.
Quality is anchored by an excellent ROE of 30%, 24% margins, 130% FCF-to-net-income conversion and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should remain above 20% and cash conversion above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterProperty and casualty insurance is a binary, catastrophe-exposed industry, so one bad weather season could erase a year of returns.
At $38.44 the stock trades 9.6% above the $34.74 analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside against a modeled 15% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Further gains over 12 months require analysts to lift targets above the current price.
CounterLight analyst coverage means targets lag fast-improving results, and upward revisions after strong beats could quickly close the gap.
Hippo depends on a single reinsurer for its builder channel, a flagged counterparty concentration risk alongside an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The reinsurance relationship should stay intact with no loss of capacity or adverse repricing over 12 months.
CounterIf that reinsurer pulled back or repriced, Hippo could lose underwriting capacity in a key distribution channel with few quick substitutes.
Momentum scores 7.3/10 with rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average, but RSI of 94 is overbought and the stock is 2.4% from its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day moving average as institutions keep accumulating.
CounterAn RSI of 94 signals an extreme overbought reading, and put/call of 2.00 with 63% implied volatility suggests traders are hedging a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.1 |
| Op margin | 3.2 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 130% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $571,582 (0.057% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 5.0 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 0.4 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.52
Upside
-7.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.3; weakest: Technical at 4.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Catalyst at 8.2, and Peer rank at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0, and Insider at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2High Return Quality Compounder
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 30%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises more than 20% above the $34.74 analyst target with no upward target revision.
- P4Reinsurer Counterparty Concentration
Trip ifReinsurer concentration exceeds 50% of ceded premium in the builder channel, or capacity is cut by more than 20%.
- P5Extended Momentum Near Highs
Trip ifPrice drops below the 200-day moving average, or momentum score falls below 5.0 from 7.3.