Value
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
HBNC · Why this verdict
Why Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Horizon Bancorp is a small regional bank with a consistent earnings-beat record and a low forward valuation, but the stock sits within 1% of the analyst target and near its 52-week high, so upside looks limited from here.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial loans make up 70.4% of the loan portfolio, concentrating credit risk in one segment. Bear case | Credit quality should hold without a material rise in commercial loan stress over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA commercial real estate or business-lending downturn would hit a loan book this concentrated harder than a diversified peer. | ||
Horizon has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 3.2%, showing reliable earnings delivery. Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating consensus over the next 4 quarters, with the average surprise staying positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent beats are small (4.2% in the latest quarter) and the July 2026 quarter was a miss of 3.9%, so the streak may be fading as comps get harder. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x with a PEG of 0.05, described as attractively valued relative to earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below roughly 12x while earnings growth holds, leaving room for multiple support. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe PEG of 0.05 rests on low-confidence growth data (0.33 confidence), and a cheap multiple may simply reflect regional-bank risk rather than mispricing. | ||
With price of $20.37 against an analyst target of $20.53, the stock is only 0.8% below the target, leaving almost no upside against a modeled 10% downside. Targets | Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current $20.53 level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTargets from light coverage lag price in a rising market and could be revised up quickly if earnings keep beating. | ||
Momentum scores 7.7/10 with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume, while the stock sits 3.2% below its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above its 200-day moving average as accumulation continues. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTrading within 3.2% of the 52-week high with RSI at 69 leaves the stock extended, and a pullback is likely given high implied volatility of 84%. | ||
Commercial loans make up 70.4% of the loan portfolio, concentrating credit risk in one segment.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality should hold without a material rise in commercial loan stress over the next 12 months.
CounterA commercial real estate or business-lending downturn would hit a loan book this concentrated harder than a diversified peer.
Horizon has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 3.2%, showing reliable earnings delivery.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating consensus over the next 4 quarters, with the average surprise staying positive.
CounterThe most recent beats are small (4.2% in the latest quarter) and the July 2026 quarter was a miss of 3.9%, so the streak may be fading as comps get harder.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x with a PEG of 0.05, described as attractively valued relative to earnings growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below roughly 12x while earnings growth holds, leaving room for multiple support.
CounterThe PEG of 0.05 rests on low-confidence growth data (0.33 confidence), and a cheap multiple may simply reflect regional-bank risk rather than mispricing.
With price of $20.37 against an analyst target of $20.53, the stock is only 0.8% below the target, leaving almost no upside against a modeled 10% downside.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current $20.53 level.
CounterTargets from light coverage lag price in a rising market and could be revised up quickly if earnings keep beating.
Momentum scores 7.7/10 with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume, while the stock sits 3.2% below its 52-week high.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its 200-day moving average as accumulation continues.
CounterTrading within 3.2% of the 52-week high with RSI at 69 leaves the stock extended, and a pullback is likely given high implied volatility of 84%.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.56 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 4.1 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.9 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.01
Upside
+0.1%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Catalyst at 5.2, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise falling below 0%.
- P2Low Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x without a matching rise in earnings growth.
- P3Limited Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% below the $20.53 analyst target with no target revision.
- P4Commercial Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifCommercial loans exceed 75% of the loan portfolio from the current 70.4%.
- P5Strong Technical Momentum Near Highs
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 7.7.