Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
HBB · Why this verdict
Why Hamilton Beach Brands Holding C (HBB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hamilton Beach has excellent returns on equity (30%) and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9, but earnings are expected to fall about 62% from a cyclical peak and momentum is negative, so the cheap trailing valuation may be a trap.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has a record of 3 earnings beats against 1 miss, with the next report 24 days away on November 4. Catalyst breakdown | EPS meets or beats estimates at the November 4 report and the following quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe beat history recorded is from 2022 to early 2023, and the one miss in March 2023 was large at -47%, so the streak is dated. | ||
Fundamentals are strong, with a 30% return on equity and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9, backed by a current ratio score of 9.9. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 6 or higher and return on equity stays above 20% over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity is flattered by a small equity base and peak-cycle earnings, and gross and operating margin scores are only 1.4 and 2.3. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 62% from a cyclical peak, with a forward P/E of 22x against a trailing 8x (2.6x expansion), flagging a cyclical trap. Warnings | Forward P/E stays well above trailing P/E as earnings normalize downward over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 3 of 4 earnings beat streak and consistent beats suggest forecasts may be too pessimistic, and the decline may already be priced in. | ||
Momentum of 2.4 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum recovers above 4.5 before a position is justified. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remains above its 200-day average, so the weakness may be a pause rather than a trend break. | ||
The stock scores 8.2 on value, with attractive P/E versus peers, though this rests on trailing rather than forward earnings. Valuation breakdown | Value score stays above 6.0 if earnings hold near current levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 21.7x is much higher than the trailing multiple, so the cheapness disappears if the expected earnings decline arrives. | ||
The company has a record of 3 earnings beats against 1 miss, with the next report 24 days away on November 4.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates at the November 4 report and the following quarter.
CounterThe beat history recorded is from 2022 to early 2023, and the one miss in March 2023 was large at -47%, so the streak is dated.
Fundamentals are strong, with a 30% return on equity and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 of 9, backed by a current ratio score of 9.9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 6 or higher and return on equity stays above 20% over 12 months.
CounterReturn on equity is flattered by a small equity base and peak-cycle earnings, and gross and operating margin scores are only 1.4 and 2.3.
Earnings are expected to decline about 62% from a cyclical peak, with a forward P/E of 22x against a trailing 8x (2.6x expansion), flagging a cyclical trap.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays well above trailing P/E as earnings normalize downward over 12 months.
CounterThe 3 of 4 earnings beat streak and consistent beats suggest forecasts may be too pessimistic, and the decline may already be priced in.
Momentum of 2.4 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 before a position is justified.
CounterPrice remains above its 200-day average, so the weakness may be a pause rather than a trend break.
The stock scores 8.2 on value, with attractive P/E versus peers, though this rests on trailing rather than forward earnings.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Value score stays above 6.0 if earnings hold near current levels.
CounterThe forward P/E of 21.7x is much higher than the trailing multiple, so the cheapness disappears if the expected earnings decline arrives.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.4 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 4.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $97,500 (0.023% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.6 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 9.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
- ▸High IV: 87%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Technical at 8.4, and Peer rank at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Insider at 4.8, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Returns Strong Fundamentals
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 8 of 9.
- P2Cyclical Peak Earnings Decline
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 12x from current 21.7x.
- P3Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 2.4.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Attractive Trailing Valuation Vs Peers
Trip ifValue score falls below 5.0 from current 8.2.