Value
9.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
HAPN · Why this verdict
Why Happen (HAPN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Happen is a regional bank at a forward P/E of 5.9x with the price 51.3% below the $21.32 analyst target and an unbroken run of earnings beats (average +17%), but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, insiders are selling and earnings are due in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 5.9x and the $14.09 price is 51.3% below the $21.32 analyst target, so the market is pricing in substantial risk. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $21.32 target as earnings keep growing over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and a 74% implied upside with a falling stock suggests the market doubts the targets. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with none missed, for an average surprise of +17.15%, including $0.50 versus $0.42 in July. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-10-28 report and stay at or above $0.45 per quarter. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates were low and the January report was only inline; with earnings in 4 days the stock sits in a downtrend, so a beat may already be expected. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow at 618% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting a quality score of 6.6. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should stay above net income and quality should stay above 6.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a bank, operating cash flow includes loan-sale and deposit timing, so a 618% ratio is not a reliable measure of earnings quality. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day average, which is falling 3.3% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and a death cross, a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the $13.46 stop level and reclaim its 200-day average over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBollinger and support scores of 9.5 and 8.9 suggest the stock is near support, and a strong earnings report could reverse the trend. | ||
Insiders sold about $3.7M of stock (0.229% of market cap) in 9 sales over 90 days with no buying, which weighs on the otherwise strong earnings case. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should fall below 0.1% of market cap over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA sale of 0.229% of market cap is moderate, and institutions are adding shares according to the holder-change score of 7.1. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 5.9x and the $14.09 price is 51.3% below the $21.32 analyst target, so the market is pricing in substantial risk.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $21.32 target as earnings keep growing over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and a 74% implied upside with a falling stock suggests the market doubts the targets.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with none missed, for an average surprise of +17.15%, including $0.50 versus $0.42 in July.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-10-28 report and stay at or above $0.45 per quarter.
CounterEstimates were low and the January report was only inline; with earnings in 4 days the stock sits in a downtrend, so a beat may already be expected.
Cash conversion is excellent, with free cash flow at 618% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, supporting a quality score of 6.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should stay above net income and quality should stay above 6.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterFor a bank, operating cash flow includes loan-sale and deposit timing, so a 618% ratio is not a reliable measure of earnings quality.
The stock trades below its 200-day average, which is falling 3.3% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and a death cross, a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $13.46 stop level and reclaim its 200-day average over the next two quarters.
CounterBollinger and support scores of 9.5 and 8.9 suggest the stock is near support, and a strong earnings report could reverse the trend.
Insiders sold about $3.7M of stock (0.229% of market cap) in 9 sales over 90 days with no buying, which weighs on the otherwise strong earnings case.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should fall below 0.1% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterA sale of 0.229% of market cap is moderate, and institutions are adding shares according to the holder-change score of 7.1.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 4.4 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 7.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 618% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 5.6 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $3,722,531 (0.225% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.0 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 3.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| beta | 3.7 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.5>=1.5
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.23%=MODERATE
- 8K_FLAG:3.01
Reward-to-Risk
6.49
Upside
+48.6%
Downside
7.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.89>1.3, MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:6.5>=1.5. Top dim: Value at 9.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Catalyst at 7.8, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 4.5, Insider at 4.8, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $16.90, cutting upside to less than 20%.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifQuality score falls below 5.0 from the current 6.6.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Price
Trip ifPrice falls below $13.46, the stop level, from the current $14.09.
- P5Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over 90 days from the current 0.23%.