Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 8.3 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.79
- ▸Attractively valued
HAL · Why this verdict
Why Halliburton (HAL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Halliburton has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters at an average positive surprise of roughly 13%, trades at a forward P/E of 13.1x with a PEG of 1.0, and converts earnings to free cash flow at 132% — but with only 4.3% headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio below the 1.5-to-1 threshold, the setup favors patience over new capital deployment at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow conversion stands at 132% of net income — meaning the business generates more cash than it reports in earnings — indicating high earnings quality and disciplined working-capital management. Quality breakdown | FCF conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 2 fiscal years. | →Stable |
| CounterThere is no identified competitive moat, meaning cash generation depends on oilfield services pricing dynamics that can compress rapidly in a demand downturn; the current conversion rate could reverse on any significant increase in capital maintenance requirements. | ||
With only 4.3% headroom to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.3-to-1 that falls short of the 1.5-to-1 minimum, the current entry geometry is too narrow to justify deploying new capital, even though the underlying business quality is sound. Warnings | A pullback to a level offering at least 10% upside to the analyst target would restore a more compelling reward-to-risk profile. | ↑Improving |
| CounterContinued earnings beats could drive upward analyst target revisions, making the current 4.3% gap a transient floor rather than a ceiling; waiting for a pullback risks missing an upward re-rating. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of roughly 13% after a single in-line quarter in the oldest period of the trailing year — a pattern that suggests management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | Average EPS surprise remains above 5% over the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the beat pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is effectively flat year-over-year, indicating the beat streak reflects cost discipline rather than demand growth; a reversal in field-service margins or a step-up in overhead could end the pattern without a revenue tailwind to offset it. | ||
A forward P/E of 13.1x combined with a PEG ratio of 1.0 implies the market is paying roughly one turn of multiple per unit of growth — a relationship that looks attractive for an energy-services business with a positive earnings trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E expands toward 15x as consensus estimate revisions follow continued beats over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFlat revenue growth provides little fundamental catalyst for multiple expansion; a 13x forward multiple may accurately reflect the cyclical risk inherent in oilfield services rather than represent a discount awaiting closure. | ||
Free cash flow conversion stands at 132% of net income — meaning the business generates more cash than it reports in earnings — indicating high earnings quality and disciplined working-capital management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 2 fiscal years.
CounterThere is no identified competitive moat, meaning cash generation depends on oilfield services pricing dynamics that can compress rapidly in a demand downturn; the current conversion rate could reverse on any significant increase in capital maintenance requirements.
With only 4.3% headroom to the analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.3-to-1 that falls short of the 1.5-to-1 minimum, the current entry geometry is too narrow to justify deploying new capital, even though the underlying business quality is sound.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- A pullback to a level offering at least 10% upside to the analyst target would restore a more compelling reward-to-risk profile.
CounterContinued earnings beats could drive upward analyst target revisions, making the current 4.3% gap a transient floor rather than a ceiling; waiting for a pullback risks missing an upward re-rating.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the three most recent quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of roughly 13% after a single in-line quarter in the oldest period of the trailing year — a pattern that suggests management is consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS surprise remains above 5% over the next 4 reported quarters, sustaining the beat pattern.
CounterRevenue is effectively flat year-over-year, indicating the beat streak reflects cost discipline rather than demand growth; a reversal in field-service margins or a step-up in overhead could end the pattern without a revenue tailwind to offset it.
A forward P/E of 13.1x combined with a PEG ratio of 1.0 implies the market is paying roughly one turn of multiple per unit of growth — a relationship that looks attractive for an energy-services business with a positive earnings trajectory.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E expands toward 15x as consensus estimate revisions follow continued beats over the next 12 months.
CounterFlat revenue growth provides little fundamental catalyst for multiple expansion; a 13x forward multiple may accurately reflect the cyclical risk inherent in oilfield services rather than represent a discount awaiting closure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.1 |
| Net margin | 3.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 128% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,079,113 (0.034% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.4 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 6.2 |
| implied vol | 5.1 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.1% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:77d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
3.14
Upside
+21.0%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Growth at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Growth at 4.3, Momentum at 5.2, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Execution Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Valuation Attractive At Peg One
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 9x for 2 consecutive quarters without a corresponding decline in earnings estimates.
- P3Superior Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFCF/NI ratio falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Thin Upside Limits New Entry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $46, expanding upside to more than 20% from the current price and improving the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.