Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
HAFC · Why this verdict
Why Hanmi Financial (HAFC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hanmi Financial is growing revenue 23% YoY with 32% margins and a 3-of-4 earnings beat record at a forward P/E of 9.6x, but the price is 9.4% above the analyst target, loans are 77.8% commercial, and earnings are due in 3 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
77.8% of the loan portfolio is commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans, so credit quality depends on the commercial property market. Bear case | Commercial concentration should stay at or below roughly 78% with no rise in credit losses over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCommercial lending drives the 32% margins, and no credit stress shows in recent earnings. | ||
Revenue is growing 23% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $72.2M versus $65.2M a year earlier, supporting a growth score of 9.2. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should reach the $75.5M next-quarter estimate and keep growing above 10% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterBank revenue is rate-sensitive, and sequential growth has slowed to about 1% per quarter ($71.7M to $72.2M), so the 23% rate may not last. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with none missed, for an average surprise of +5.41%, including $0.79 versus $0.77 in July. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-10-27 report and stay at or above $0.75 per quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are small (3% to 7%) and the January report was merely inline, so the margin for error is thin with earnings only 3 days away. | ||
The $32.15 price is 9.4% above the $29.11 analyst target and near the 52-week high (4.0% away), leaving no analyst upside. Upside pct | Analysts should raise the target above $32 if earnings keep beating, or the price should ease toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and a bullish MACD show buyers in control, and bank targets often lag. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 9.6x with a 3.5% dividend and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, which is inexpensive for a bank with 23% growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe business has no competitive moat, and a low multiple may reflect market worry about commercial real estate credit. | ||
77.8% of the loan portfolio is commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans, so credit quality depends on the commercial property market.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial concentration should stay at or below roughly 78% with no rise in credit losses over the next 12 months.
CounterCommercial lending drives the 32% margins, and no credit stress shows in recent earnings.
Revenue is growing 23% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $72.2M versus $65.2M a year earlier, supporting a growth score of 9.2.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $75.5M next-quarter estimate and keep growing above 10% YoY.
CounterBank revenue is rate-sensitive, and sequential growth has slowed to about 1% per quarter ($71.7M to $72.2M), so the 23% rate may not last.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with none missed, for an average surprise of +5.41%, including $0.79 versus $0.77 in July.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-10-27 report and stay at or above $0.75 per quarter.
CounterBeats are small (3% to 7%) and the January report was merely inline, so the margin for error is thin with earnings only 3 days away.
The $32.15 price is 9.4% above the $29.11 analyst target and near the 52-week high (4.0% away), leaving no analyst upside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise the target above $32 if earnings keep beating, or the price should ease toward the target.
CounterA breakout with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and a bullish MACD show buyers in control, and bank targets often lag.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 9.6x with a 3.5% dividend and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, which is inexpensive for a bank with 23% growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterThe business has no competitive moat, and a low multiple may reflect market worry about commercial real estate credit.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 8.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.04
Upside
-9.1%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Technical at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 8.0, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $65M, the year-ago level, from the latest $72.2M.
- P2Steady Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Commercial Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial loans rise to more than 85% of the portfolio from the current 77.8%.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $30.50, the stop level, from the current $32.15.
- P5Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 9.6x with no rise in earnings estimates.