Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
GSM · Why this verdict
Why Ferroglobe (GSM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ferroglobe trades at a forward P/E of 9.6x with the price 27.8% below the $5.10 analyst target, but quality is below the floor (3.0), earnings keep missing, revenue is slipping and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 9.6x and the $3.99 price is 27.8% below the $5.10 analyst target, which prices in a lot of bad news. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $5.10 target over 12 months as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light and cheap valuation on a business with no moat and negative free cash flow is a common value-trap pattern. | ||
Business quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.0, with no moat and negative free cash flow, so the cheap valuation is not backed by cash generation. Bear case | Quality should rise toward 4.0 and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCommodity metals producers see free cash flow swing with the cycle, and a Piotroski score of 5.6 shows the balance sheet is not distressed. | ||
EPS missed in 2 of the last 4 reported quarters (including -$0.02 versus +$0.05 in November 2025) for an average surprise of -8.35%, and the August quarter shows no reported actual. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-03 report, ending the miss pattern. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEPS values are within a few cents of zero, so percentage misses are magnified and the last two quarters were close to estimates. | ||
Revenue is declining (-2%), with the latest quarter at about $378.6M versus $386.9M a year earlier, although it has recovered from $311.7M two quarters earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $383M next-quarter estimate and return to growth over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sequential rise from $312M to $379M over three quarters suggests recovery is underway, and the revenue data is provisional. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day average, which is falling 1.3% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and a death cross, a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the $3.71 stop level and reclaim the 200-day average over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBollinger and support scores of 7.3 and 7.2 suggest the stock is near support, so selling pressure may be exhausted. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 9.6x and the $3.99 price is 27.8% below the $5.10 analyst target, which prices in a lot of bad news.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $5.10 target over 12 months as earnings stabilize.
CounterCoverage is light and cheap valuation on a business with no moat and negative free cash flow is a common value-trap pattern.
Business quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.0, with no moat and negative free cash flow, so the cheap valuation is not backed by cash generation.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality should rise toward 4.0 and free cash flow should turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterCommodity metals producers see free cash flow swing with the cycle, and a Piotroski score of 5.6 shows the balance sheet is not distressed.
EPS missed in 2 of the last 4 reported quarters (including -$0.02 versus +$0.05 in November 2025) for an average surprise of -8.35%, and the August quarter shows no reported actual.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-03 report, ending the miss pattern.
CounterEPS values are within a few cents of zero, so percentage misses are magnified and the last two quarters were close to estimates.
Revenue is declining (-2%), with the latest quarter at about $378.6M versus $386.9M a year earlier, although it has recovered from $311.7M two quarters earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $383M next-quarter estimate and return to growth over the next 12 months.
CounterThe sequential rise from $312M to $379M over three quarters suggests recovery is underway, and the revenue data is provisional.
The stock sits below its 200-day average, which is falling 1.3% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and a death cross, a confirmed downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $3.71 stop level and reclaim the 200-day average over the next two quarters.
CounterBollinger and support scores of 7.3 and 7.2 suggest the stock is near support, so selling pressure may be exhausted.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.9 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $138,856 (0.019% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.25
- ▸High IV: 96%
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.06
Upside
+28.6%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.2
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 3.06.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Sentiment at 6.7, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Quality at 3.0, and Catalyst at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $4.60, cutting upside to less than 15%.
- P2Weak Quality Negative Fcf
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Slipping Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $347M from the latest $378.6M.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below $3.71, the stop level, from the current $3.99.