Value
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 3.3 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.7x
- ▸PEG: 3.74
GSBC · Why this verdict
Why Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Great Southern Bancorp has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 reports (average +15%) with 28% margins and a breakout chart, but the price is 18.1% above the $66.30 analyst target, revenue is declining and 78.3% of loans are commercial real estate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
78.3% of the loan portfolio is commercial real estate, construction and other commercial loans, so credit losses could rise if property values fall. Bear case | Commercial real estate concentration should stay at or below roughly 78% with no rise in credit losses over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration in commercial lending is typical for community banks and has supported 28% margins, and recent earnings show no credit stress. | ||
EPS beat estimates in every recent report, including $1.50 versus $1.39 on 2026-10-21, for an average surprise of +14.96%. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2027-01-27 report and stay at or above $1.40 per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats of 5% to 15% against conservative bank estimates are common, and the surprise is shrinking from +22% to +8% over three quarters. | ||
Revenue is declining (-2%), with the latest quarter at about $72.5M versus $81.0M a year earlier, though margins remain strong at 28%. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stabilize above $70M while margins stay above 25%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe revenue series is flagged because filing data and market data diverge by about 22%, so the true revenue trend is uncertain. | ||
The $80.93 price is 18.1% above the $66.30 analyst target, near the 52-week high (2.4% away), so analysts see the stock as fully valued. Upside pct | Analysts should raise the target above $80 as earnings keep beating, or the price should ease toward the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA breakout with a golden cross and above all moving averages shows buyers in control, and analyst targets often lag a rising bank stock. | ||
The chart shows a breakout with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 56 and a bullish MACD, giving a momentum score of 7.8. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above the $77.61 stop level and above its 200-day average over the next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout this close to the 52-week high has limited cushion, and Bollinger band and support scores are near zero, so a pullback could be sharp. | ||
78.3% of the loan portfolio is commercial real estate, construction and other commercial loans, so credit losses could rise if property values fall.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate concentration should stay at or below roughly 78% with no rise in credit losses over the next 12 months.
CounterConcentration in commercial lending is typical for community banks and has supported 28% margins, and recent earnings show no credit stress.
EPS beat estimates in every recent report, including $1.50 versus $1.39 on 2026-10-21, for an average surprise of +14.96%.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2027-01-27 report and stay at or above $1.40 per quarter.
CounterBeats of 5% to 15% against conservative bank estimates are common, and the surprise is shrinking from +22% to +8% over three quarters.
Revenue is declining (-2%), with the latest quarter at about $72.5M versus $81.0M a year earlier, though margins remain strong at 28%.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stabilize above $70M while margins stay above 25%.
CounterThe revenue series is flagged because filing data and market data diverge by about 22%, so the true revenue trend is uncertain.
The $80.93 price is 18.1% above the $66.30 analyst target, near the 52-week high (2.4% away), so analysts see the stock as fully valued.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise the target above $80 as earnings keep beating, or the price should ease toward the target.
CounterA breakout with a golden cross and above all moving averages shows buyers in control, and analyst targets often lag a rising bank stock.
The chart shows a breakout with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 56 and a bullish MACD, giving a momentum score of 7.8.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $77.61 stop level and above its 200-day average over the next quarter.
CounterA breakout this close to the 52-week high has limited cushion, and Bollinger band and support scores are near zero, so a pullback could be sharp.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $68,931 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 1.0 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.56
Upside
-18.7%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.2; weakest: Growth at 2.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.2, Catalyst at 6.9, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.4, Peer rank at 3.0, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Commercial Real Estate Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate loans rise to more than 85% of the portfolio from the current 78.3%.
- P3Declining Revenue Strong Margins
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $65M from the latest $72.5M.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $77.61, the stop level, from the current $80.93.
- P5Breakout Uptrend Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below its 200-day average, which would end the breakout setup.