Value
2.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
GRAL · Why this verdict
Why GRAIL (GRAL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -69% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
9.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $11,620,688 (0.450% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 0.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.22
Upside
-3.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 9.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.5, Catalyst at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Value at 2.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.