Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.66
- ▸Attractively valued
GOGO · Why this verdict
Why Gogo (GOGO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Gogo shows an extreme asymmetry ratio of 8.41, with the engine modeling 126.2% upside to its analyst-target-derived take-profit against 15% downside. Engine gate (passed) | The asymmetry ratio should stay elevated as the stock advances toward its take-profit level, or moderate only as price appreciates. | →Stable |
| CounterAn asymmetry ratio this extreme, paired with a stock down 79% from its 52-week high, often reflects deep distress pricing where the modeled upside assumes an unlikely full recovery to a stale analyst target. | ||
The engine's risk score sits right at its floor of 3.0, and the action note explicitly flags extreme risk factors warranting an exit. Bear case | The risk score should climb comfortably above the 3.0 floor as risk factors, such as short interest and volatility, ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA risk score parked exactly at its floor may just reflect a scoring boundary condition rather than a qualitatively distinct danger versus a score of 3.5 or 4.0. | ||
Despite declining revenue of -2% year over year, Gogo shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and excellent cash conversion at 176% of net income. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 6 or higher while revenue growth stabilizes toward flat or positive. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong Piotroski and cash-conversion readings can coexist with a structurally shrinking business if cost-cutting rather than growth is driving the cash generation. | ||
The stock carries high short interest of 19% while attempting a technical recovery from a death cross with improving MACD. Key risks | Short interest should decline as the recovery gains traction, or a short squeeze could accelerate the move. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest can also reflect informed bearish positioning that persists or intensifies if the death-cross recovery stalls. | ||
Gogo shows an extreme asymmetry ratio of 8.41, with the engine modeling 126.2% upside to its analyst-target-derived take-profit against 15% downside.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay elevated as the stock advances toward its take-profit level, or moderate only as price appreciates.
CounterAn asymmetry ratio this extreme, paired with a stock down 79% from its 52-week high, often reflects deep distress pricing where the modeled upside assumes an unlikely full recovery to a stale analyst target.
The engine's risk score sits right at its floor of 3.0, and the action note explicitly flags extreme risk factors warranting an exit.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The risk score should climb comfortably above the 3.0 floor as risk factors, such as short interest and volatility, ease.
CounterA risk score parked exactly at its floor may just reflect a scoring boundary condition rather than a qualitatively distinct danger versus a score of 3.5 or 4.0.
Despite declining revenue of -2% year over year, Gogo shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and excellent cash conversion at 176% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 6 or higher while revenue growth stabilizes toward flat or positive.
CounterStrong Piotroski and cash-conversion readings can coexist with a structurally shrinking business if cost-cutting rather than growth is driving the cash generation.
The stock carries high short interest of 19% while attempting a technical recovery from a death cross with improving MACD.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline as the recovery gains traction, or a short squeeze could accelerate the move.
CounterHigh short interest can also reflect informed bearish positioning that persists or intensifies if the death-cross recovery stalls.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gogo shows an extreme 8.41 asymmetry ratio with 126% modeled upside and strong Piotroski quality, but the engine's risk score sits right at its floor with an explicit extreme-risk exit flag and high short interest during a fragile death-cross recovery.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 176% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -16.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 168%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.7 |
| days to cover | 1.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 19%
- ▸High IV: 100%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:8.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
8.54
Upside
+127.5%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -79% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Insider at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Peer rank at 2.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Asymmetry Modeled Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 3.0, down from the current 8.41, as the modeled upside narrows.
- P2Risk Floor Breach Extreme Factors
Trip ifRisk score rises above 4.0, up from the current floor-level 3.0, clearing the extreme-risk flag.
- P3Strong Piotroski Cash Conversion Despite Decline
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9, down from the current 7.
- P4High Short Interest Recovery Setup
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10%, down from the current 19%, as bearish positioning unwinds.