Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
GNK · Why this verdict
Why Genco Shipping & Trading Limite (GNK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Genco Shipping is growing revenue about 68% YoY with a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, but the price is 0.3% above the analyst target, insiders sold about 5.1% of market cap, and free cash flow is deeply negative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing about 68% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $136M versus $81M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above $110M, in line with the $110M next-quarter estimate, and stay above year-ago levels. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping revenue follows freight rates, which are cyclical, and the next-quarter estimate of $110M is below the latest $136M, implying the peak may be passing. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.65 versus $0.58 in August, after several prior misses, showing a turn in profitability. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-04 report and stay positive in the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise of +140% is inflated by a tiny May estimate of $0.03, and the series includes misses in 2025, so the recovery may be driven by the freight cycle. | ||
Insiders sold about $56.8M (5.085% of market cap) in 18 sales over 90 days with no purchases, a sign of reduced conviction near current prices. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should fall below 2% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSales in 18 transactions may reflect scheduled selling or diversification rather than a view on the business. | ||
Earnings quality carries a red flag with free cash flow at -304% of net income, even though the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, and the yield trap warning shows dividend safety is weak at 4.3. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income and dividend safety should rise above 6.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFleet investment spending can drive negative free cash flow temporarily, and the current ratio score of 9.9 shows strong liquidity. | ||
The $25.63 price is 0.3% above the $25.54 analyst target, so reward is gone and downside to the $23.93 stop is 6.6%. Upside pct | Further gains require analysts to raise the target above $28 as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may lag the rapid earnings growth and be raised after the November report. | ||
Revenue is growing about 68% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $136M versus $81M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above $110M, in line with the $110M next-quarter estimate, and stay above year-ago levels.
CounterShipping revenue follows freight rates, which are cyclical, and the next-quarter estimate of $110M is below the latest $136M, implying the peak may be passing.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.65 versus $0.58 in August, after several prior misses, showing a turn in profitability.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-04 report and stay positive in the next four quarters.
CounterThe average surprise of +140% is inflated by a tiny May estimate of $0.03, and the series includes misses in 2025, so the recovery may be driven by the freight cycle.
Insiders sold about $56.8M (5.085% of market cap) in 18 sales over 90 days with no purchases, a sign of reduced conviction near current prices.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should fall below 2% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterSales in 18 transactions may reflect scheduled selling or diversification rather than a view on the business.
Earnings quality carries a red flag with free cash flow at -304% of net income, even though the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, and the yield trap warning shows dividend safety is weak at 4.3.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income and dividend safety should rise above 6.0 over 12 months.
CounterFleet investment spending can drive negative free cash flow temporarily, and the current ratio score of 9.9 shows strong liquidity.
The $25.63 price is 0.3% above the $25.54 analyst target, so reward is gone and downside to the $23.93 stop is 6.6%.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Further gains require analysts to raise the target above $28 as earnings grow.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may lag the rapid earnings growth and be raised after the November report.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -304% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 68% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $56,802,907 (5.085% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:5.08%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.05
Upside
-0.3%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 6.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Insider at 4.3, Peer rank at 4.4, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $81M, the year-ago level, from the latest $136M.
- P2Earnings Beat Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling falls below 1% of market cap over 90 days from the current 5.1%.
- P4Negative Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -100% for 2 more quarters.
- P5Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below $23.93, the stop level, from the current $25.63.