Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
GNK · Why this verdict
Why Genco Shipping & Trading Limite (GNK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Genco Shipping is trading under an active tender offer that caps upside near the deal spread, with heavy insider selling and a severe negative-FCF earnings-quality flag tempering an otherwise strong Piotroski quality read.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Genco Shipping is under an active M&A tender offer, which the engine notes caps upside at the deal spread while introducing deal-failure risk. Engine summary | The deal should progress toward completion, narrowing the spread between the current price and the tender offer price. | — |
| CounterM&A deals can fall through on financing, regulatory, or shareholder-vote issues, in which case the stock could reprice sharply lower back to standalone fundamentals. | ||
Insiders have sold a notable $3.66 million, or 0.343% of market cap, which the engine classifies as heavy-severity insider selling even as the tender offer is pending. Insider | Net insider selling should moderate as the deal timeline progresses, rather than continuing to escalate. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider sales during an active tender offer are often pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) unrelated to deal conviction, and don't necessarily signal doubt about deal completion. | ||
The engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag: free cash flow running at -829% of net income, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should normalize toward a positive or near-breakeven level. | →Stable |
| CounterA shipping company's free cash flow can swing wildly quarter to quarter with vessel purchases or drydocking capex, so an extreme single-period reading may not reflect a persistent quality problem. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at 0.23, well below the 1.5 threshold, reflecting the capped 1.5% upside typical of a stock trading near its deal price. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should stay low and stable as the position trades tightly around the tender-offer price into deal close. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the deal breaks, the asymmetry ratio could swing sharply negative as the stock reprices toward standalone value rather than staying anchored near the deal spread. | ||
Genco Shipping is under an active M&A tender offer, which the engine notes caps upside at the deal spread while introducing deal-failure risk.
—Engine summary
- Expectation
- The deal should progress toward completion, narrowing the spread between the current price and the tender offer price.
CounterM&A deals can fall through on financing, regulatory, or shareholder-vote issues, in which case the stock could reprice sharply lower back to standalone fundamentals.
Insiders have sold a notable $3.66 million, or 0.343% of market cap, which the engine classifies as heavy-severity insider selling even as the tender offer is pending.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should moderate as the deal timeline progresses, rather than continuing to escalate.
CounterInsider sales during an active tender offer are often pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) unrelated to deal conviction, and don't necessarily signal doubt about deal completion.
The engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag: free cash flow running at -829% of net income, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should normalize toward a positive or near-breakeven level.
CounterA shipping company's free cash flow can swing wildly quarter to quarter with vessel purchases or drydocking capex, so an extreme single-period reading may not reflect a persistent quality problem.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at 0.23, well below the 1.5 threshold, reflecting the capped 1.5% upside typical of a stock trading near its deal price.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay low and stable as the position trades tightly around the tender-offer price into deal close.
CounterIf the deal breaks, the asymmetry ratio could swing sharply negative as the stock reprices toward standalone value rather than staying anchored near the deal spread.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.5 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -304% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 68% YoY
Momentum
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.2x avg) on up move
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 7.6 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:75d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.49
Upside
-5.4%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Peer rank at 4.7, and Sentiment at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.49 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Ma Tender Offer Caps Upside
Trip ifThe tender offer fails to close and the stock falls more than 10% below the deal price within 6 months.
- P2Heavy Insider Selling During Deal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 1% of market cap over the next 90 days, roughly 3 times the current 0.343%.
- P3Negative Fcf Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio stays below -200% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Asymmetry Gate Failure Near Deal Spread
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 0, turning negative if the deal spread widens or the tender offer is challenged.