Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
GMRS · Why this verdict
Why GMR Solutions (GMRS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GMR Solutions is a cheap, revenue-stable small cap (forward P/E 6.0x, price 51.0% below the $16.20 analyst target) but with weak margins, high leverage, a large recent EPS miss and heavy insider selling of 4.95% of market cap.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.0x with the $10.73 price 51.0% below the $16.20 analyst target, so the market is pricing in a lot of risk. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $16.20 target as earnings stabilize over 12 months, with forward P/E staying below 10x. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuation on a no-moat, low-margin business with high leverage may be a value trap, and the target may be stale after the latest EPS loss. | ||
The latest quarter showed an EPS loss of -$1.56 versus a +$0.32 estimate, a -583% surprise, and the company has no competitive moat and weak margins. Avg surprise pct | EPS should return to at least the estimate at the 2026-11-09 report, showing the loss was one-off. | →Stable |
| CounterThe loss may include a one-time charge, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows underlying financial health is solid. | ||
Insiders sold about $28.7M of stock (4.953% of market cap) in 6 sales over 90 days with no buying, a sign that those closest to the business are reducing exposure. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should fade to under 1% of market cap while institutions keep accumulating. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge sales in a small cap may reflect sponsor liquidity or diversification rather than a view on the business, and institutions are accumulating. | ||
Revenue is steady and rising modestly, with the latest quarter at about $1.49B versus $1.44B a year earlier, and a next-quarter estimate of about $1.59B. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should reach the $1.59B estimate and stay above $1.45B through the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins are thin (net margin score 1.4, operating margin score 2.3), so small cost pressures can erase profit even when revenue grows. | ||
High leverage (D/E 6.0) costs the score a 1.5-point penalty and lowers risk and quality readings, which magnifies any earnings shortfall. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline toward 3.0 as earnings recover over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA current ratio score of 7.0 suggests near-term obligations are covered, so leverage may be manageable. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 6.0x with the $10.73 price 51.0% below the $16.20 analyst target, so the market is pricing in a lot of risk.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $16.20 target as earnings stabilize over 12 months, with forward P/E staying below 10x.
CounterCheap valuation on a no-moat, low-margin business with high leverage may be a value trap, and the target may be stale after the latest EPS loss.
The latest quarter showed an EPS loss of -$1.56 versus a +$0.32 estimate, a -583% surprise, and the company has no competitive moat and weak margins.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should return to at least the estimate at the 2026-11-09 report, showing the loss was one-off.
CounterThe loss may include a one-time charge, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows underlying financial health is solid.
Insiders sold about $28.7M of stock (4.953% of market cap) in 6 sales over 90 days with no buying, a sign that those closest to the business are reducing exposure.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should fade to under 1% of market cap while institutions keep accumulating.
CounterLarge sales in a small cap may reflect sponsor liquidity or diversification rather than a view on the business, and institutions are accumulating.
Revenue is steady and rising modestly, with the latest quarter at about $1.49B versus $1.44B a year earlier, and a next-quarter estimate of about $1.59B.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach the $1.59B estimate and stay above $1.45B through the next 12 months.
CounterMargins are thin (net margin score 1.4, operating margin score 2.3), so small cost pressures can erase profit even when revenue grows.
High leverage (D/E 6.0) costs the score a 1.5-point penalty and lowers risk and quality readings, which magnifies any earnings shortfall.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline toward 3.0 as earnings recover over the next 12 months.
CounterA current ratio score of 7.0 suggests near-term obligations are covered, so leverage may be manageable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 2.3 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 67%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $28,711,761 (4.867% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 4.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.0>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- INSIDER:4.87%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.01
Upside
+45.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( INSIDER:4.87%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Sentiment at 7.7, and Growth at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12.90, cutting upside to less than 20%.
- P2Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 7% of market cap over 90 days from the current 4.95%.
- P3Stable Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.40B from the latest $1.49B.
- P4Large Eps Miss Thin Margins
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% at the 2026-11-09 report and the following quarter.
- P5High Leverage Drag
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 8.0 from the current 6.0.