Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
GLAD · Why this verdict
Why Gladstone Capital (GLAD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +4.57%, showing steady execution against expectations. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-17 report and keep quarterly EPS at or above $0.49. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are small (3% to 8%) and follow a stretch of misses in 2024-25, so the streak may reflect lowered estimates rather than improving earnings. | ||
The company runs strong margins of 49% with a Rule of 40 reading of 42, supporting its quality score of 6.7. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay near or above 45% and quality should stay above 6.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow covers only 60% of net income, which is flagged as an earnings-quality warning, so reported margins may overstate cash earnings. | ||
The stock is only 1.9% below the $18.70 analyst target, versus 5.0% downside to the stop, so reward is smaller than risk at the current $18.36. Upside pct | Further gains should come from earnings growth that lifts the analyst target above $20 rather than from multiple expansion. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may be stale; a company beating every quarter could see targets raised quickly. | ||
The dividend-safety score is only 4.0 and the data warns of a yield trap (high yield but unsafe), which puts income durability in question. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety should rise toward 6.0 as net investment income covers distributions over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFour straight beats and 49% margins suggest earnings currently support the payout, so the safety warning may be overly cautious. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume and an MACD score of 3.0, although the stock remains above its 200-day average and RSI 40 reads as an uptrend pullback. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the $16.62 stop and momentum should recover above 4.5 over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 17.00 shows heavy hedging or bearish positioning, and flat 200-day slope means the uptrend is not confirmed. | ||
EPS beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +4.57%, showing steady execution against expectations.
↑ImprovingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-11-17 report and keep quarterly EPS at or above $0.49.
CounterBeats are small (3% to 8%) and follow a stretch of misses in 2024-25, so the streak may reflect lowered estimates rather than improving earnings.
The company runs strong margins of 49% with a Rule of 40 reading of 42, supporting its quality score of 6.7.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay near or above 45% and quality should stay above 6.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow covers only 60% of net income, which is flagged as an earnings-quality warning, so reported margins may overstate cash earnings.
The stock is only 1.9% below the $18.70 analyst target, versus 5.0% downside to the stop, so reward is smaller than risk at the current $18.36.
Tripped↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Further gains should come from earnings growth that lifts the analyst target above $20 rather than from multiple expansion.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target may be stale; a company beating every quarter could see targets raised quickly.
The dividend-safety score is only 4.0 and the data warns of a yield trap (high yield but unsafe), which puts income durability in question.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety should rise toward 6.0 as net investment income covers distributions over the next 12 months.
CounterFour straight beats and 49% margins suggest earnings currently support the payout, so the safety warning may be overly cautious.
Momentum is weak at 3.2/10 with falling on-balance volume and an MACD score of 3.0, although the stock remains above its 200-day average and RSI 40 reads as an uptrend pullback.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $16.62 stop and momentum should recover above 4.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterA put/call ratio of 17.00 shows heavy hedging or bearish positioning, and flat 200-day slope means the uptrend is not confirmed.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.3 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 49%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 60% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 42 (pass)
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 7.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.64
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.06
Upside
-0.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 19d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, Peer rank at 5.4, and Catalyst at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.06 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Margin Profitability
Trip ifNet margin falls below 35% from the current 49%.
- P3Price Near Analyst TargetTripped
Trip ifPrice rises above the $18.70 analyst target with no target increase, or falls below $16.62, the stop level.
- P4Dividend Safety Concern
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.0.
- P5Weak Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below $16.62, the stop level, from the current $18.36.