Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
GLAD · Why this verdict
Why Gladstone Capital (GLAD) is rated HOLD
Updated
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Gladstone Capital has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, supporting the bull case for consistent execution. Bull case | The beat streak should continue with at least a meet-or-beat result at the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterOne of the last 4 quarters came in inline rather than a clean beat, so the streak is not a perfect record and could break more easily than it appears. | ||
The company shows strong margins of 44% and passes the Rule of 40 test at 57, indicating a healthy balance between growth and profitability. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should stay comfortably above the 40 pass threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterA business development company's Rule of 40 pass is heavily influenced by portfolio yield and can compress quickly if credit quality in the loan book deteriorates. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.67 since the stock has already reached its prior analyst target, leaving only -4.3% implied upside. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive as either the price pulls back or the analyst target is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative asymmetry ratio at a reached target can persist indefinitely if the stock simply holds near fair value, especially for an income-oriented lender. | ||
The stock shows a golden-cross breakout above all moving averages with bullish MACD, though the moving-average slope itself is flat rather than rising. Momentum breakdown | The moving-average slope should turn positive, confirming a durable uptrend rather than a sideways breakout. | →Stable |
| CounterA flat moving-average slope despite a golden cross suggests the breakout lacks strong trend conviction and could fail to follow through. | ||
Gladstone Capital has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, supporting the bull case for consistent execution.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least a meet-or-beat result at the next earnings report.
CounterOne of the last 4 quarters came in inline rather than a clean beat, so the streak is not a perfect record and could break more easily than it appears.
The company shows strong margins of 44% and passes the Rule of 40 test at 57, indicating a healthy balance between growth and profitability.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should stay comfortably above the 40 pass threshold.
CounterA business development company's Rule of 40 pass is heavily influenced by portfolio yield and can compress quickly if credit quality in the loan book deteriorates.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.67 since the stock has already reached its prior analyst target, leaving only -4.3% implied upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive as either the price pulls back or the analyst target is raised.
CounterA negative asymmetry ratio at a reached target can persist indefinitely if the stock simply holds near fair value, especially for an income-oriented lender.
The stock shows a golden-cross breakout above all moving averages with bullish MACD, though the moving-average slope itself is flat rather than rising.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The moving-average slope should turn positive, confirming a durable uptrend rather than a sideways breakout.
CounterA flat moving-average slope despite a golden cross suggests the breakout lacks strong trend conviction and could fail to follow through.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gladstone Capital combines a solid earnings beat streak, strong margins, and a Rule of 40 pass with a technical breakout, but the position has already reached its analyst target, leaving the engine's asymmetry gate in negative territory.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 44%
- ▸Rule of 40: 57 (pass)
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 20% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 4.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 2.5 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| beta | 7.5 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.62
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 9.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-3.6%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.8; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Value at 7.9, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.5, and Sentiment at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifBeat count falls below 3 out of the trailing 4 quarters after the next earnings report.
- P2Strong Margins Rule Of 40 Pass
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40, down from the current 57, ending the pass.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Target Reached
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0, turning positive from the current -0.67.
- P4Technical Breakout Flat Ma Slope
Trip ifRSI falls below 40 and price closes below its 200-day moving average, reversing the current breakout.