Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
GIII · Why this verdict
Why G-III Apparel Group (GIII) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
G-III Apparel carries an eye-catching forward multiple of 14.0x and a near-zero earnings growth multiple, but the stock has essentially reached its resistance target with only 3.4% headroom and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio of 0.49. High short interest at 23% and a put/call ratio of 4.43 signal substantial market skepticism, and revenue has declined 8% over the past year, leaving the valuation story dependent on a revenue recovery that has not yet materialized.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Short interest stands at 23% of float and the put/call ratio is 4.43—both extreme readings that indicate the market is positioned heavily to the downside; implied volatility of 60% compounds the cost of holding against that adversarial positioning. Risk breakdown | If short-side pressure persists, short interest remains above 15% and the put/call ratio stays above 2.0 over the next two quarters, confirming that the bear conviction is not dissipating. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterVolume accumulation and a rising on-balance volume trend suggest institutional buyers may be absorbing supply; a positive catalyst could compress the short position rapidly and flip the sentiment picture. | ||
A forward P/E of 14.0x and a near-zero earnings growth multiple appear to offer value, but revenue has contracted 8% over the past year, suggesting the headline cheapness reflects operational pressure rather than an overlooked opportunity. Valuation breakdown | Revenue returns to positive year-over-year growth for two consecutive quarters, validating that the multiple is anchored to improving fundamentals rather than deteriorating ones. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski financial health score is 8 out of 9—near perfect—indicating the balance sheet and profitability structure are solid even during the sales downturn, which could mean the trough is already priced in. | ||
The stock sits 3.4% below its resistance-based upside target at $35.80 while potential downside is materially larger, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.49—less than half the return per unit of risk—making the current price an unattractive entry point. Price targets | A favorable setup would require either a meaningful pullback to widen the upside or a catalyst that drives a target upgrade; absent either, the asymmetry remains unfavorable. | →Stable |
| CounterThe technical pattern is a golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages and RSI at 66, suggesting price momentum could carry the stock through resistance and reset the target higher. | ||
The most recent quarter delivered a 30% beat, but the prior period missed by nearly 49%—an alternating pattern across the last four quarters that makes forward estimates unreliable and the 14.0x forward multiple harder to trust. Earnings | Two consecutive quarters of at least 5% upside surprise would signal that guidance discipline has stabilized and the forward multiple is dependable. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAveraging across all four quarters the mean earnings surprise is still a positive 33%, suggesting the company more often lands above lowered expectations than below them, which limits how much any single miss should discount forward earnings power. | ||
Short interest stands at 23% of float and the put/call ratio is 4.43—both extreme readings that indicate the market is positioned heavily to the downside; implied volatility of 60% compounds the cost of holding against that adversarial positioning.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If short-side pressure persists, short interest remains above 15% and the put/call ratio stays above 2.0 over the next two quarters, confirming that the bear conviction is not dissipating.
CounterVolume accumulation and a rising on-balance volume trend suggest institutional buyers may be absorbing supply; a positive catalyst could compress the short position rapidly and flip the sentiment picture.
A forward P/E of 14.0x and a near-zero earnings growth multiple appear to offer value, but revenue has contracted 8% over the past year, suggesting the headline cheapness reflects operational pressure rather than an overlooked opportunity.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue returns to positive year-over-year growth for two consecutive quarters, validating that the multiple is anchored to improving fundamentals rather than deteriorating ones.
CounterThe Piotroski financial health score is 8 out of 9—near perfect—indicating the balance sheet and profitability structure are solid even during the sales downturn, which could mean the trough is already priced in.
The stock sits 3.4% below its resistance-based upside target at $35.80 while potential downside is materially larger, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.49—less than half the return per unit of risk—making the current price an unattractive entry point.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A favorable setup would require either a meaningful pullback to widen the upside or a catalyst that drives a target upgrade; absent either, the asymmetry remains unfavorable.
CounterThe technical pattern is a golden cross with the stock above all major moving averages and RSI at 66, suggesting price momentum could carry the stock through resistance and reset the target higher.
The most recent quarter delivered a 30% beat, but the prior period missed by nearly 49%—an alternating pattern across the last four quarters that makes forward estimates unreliable and the 14.0x forward multiple harder to trust.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Two consecutive quarters of at least 5% upside surprise would signal that guidance discipline has stabilized and the forward multiple is dependable.
CounterAveraging across all four quarters the mean earnings surprise is still a positive 33%, suggesting the company more often lands above lowered expectations than below them, which limits how much any single miss should discount forward earnings power.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.0 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 7.6 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.31 (n=4)
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $1,117,600 (0.089% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸High short interest: 27%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 158.00
- ▸Above max pain $22
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.8 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.4% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.11
Upside
+1.0%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.11 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Insider at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Multiple Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, disproving the declining-revenue thesis.
- P2High Short Interest Options Pressure
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float for 2 consecutive reporting periods, signaling that the bearish positioning has substantially unwound.
- P3Unfavorable Risk Reward Geometry
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio exceeds 1.5 for 2 consecutive measurement periods, indicating the entry geometry has reset to a favorable level.
- P4Earnings Execution Volatile
Trip ifEPS beats consensus by more than 5% for 3 consecutive quarters, restoring confidence in forward guidance reliability.