Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
GHRS · Why this verdict
Why GH Research (GHRS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GH Research is a pre-revenue, cash-burning biotech with very weak quality (1.6/10) and a stock down 42% from its high, but with a consistent record of narrowing losses versus estimates and an analyst target 106.5% above the price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $37.31 sits 106.5% above the $18.07 price, so the market is pricing the pipeline well below analyst valuations. Upside pct | The price should close part of the gap to the analyst target over 12 months if clinical or regulatory milestones are met. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, the biotech outcome is binary, and a single failed trial could leave the target far above the realized value. | ||
Business quality is far below the 4.0 floor at 1.6 because the company is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, no competitive moat and zero reported revenue in the last five quarters. Quality breakdown | Quality should improve toward 4.0 as pipeline milestones or partnership revenue begin to offset the cash burn within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio score of 5 and conservative debt levels suggest the company can fund its burn for now, so weak quality scores may reflect normal pre-revenue biotech economics rather than distress. | ||
Quarterly losses have come in at or better than estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average EPS surprise of +6.14%, so spending appears controlled. Avg surprise pct | EPS should land at or better than the estimate at the 2026-11-05 report and in most of the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe May quarter missed by -17.7%, and a loss that is merely smaller than a pessimistic estimate does not create value for an unprofitable company. | ||
The stock is oversold (RSI 24) and below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 6.6% over 30 days, which points to a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the $17.01 support level and RSI should recover above 40 within the next quarter or two. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and a 52-week-range position score of 1.5 shows the stock is near its lows, so selling pressure could continue. | ||
Institutions are accumulating shares while insiders show no net selling, which is a supportive ownership backdrop at a small $1.2B market cap. Insider breakdown | The insider and holder-change scores should stay above 6.0 as institutional ownership keeps rising over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional buying in speculative biotechs often reverses quickly after a trial readout, and the 'accumulating' signal does not prove conviction on the pipeline. | ||
The analyst target of $37.31 sits 106.5% above the $18.07 price, so the market is pricing the pipeline well below analyst valuations.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- The price should close part of the gap to the analyst target over 12 months if clinical or regulatory milestones are met.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, the biotech outcome is binary, and a single failed trial could leave the target far above the realized value.
Business quality is far below the 4.0 floor at 1.6 because the company is cash-burning with negative free cash flow, no competitive moat and zero reported revenue in the last five quarters.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality should improve toward 4.0 as pipeline milestones or partnership revenue begin to offset the cash burn within 12 months.
CounterA current ratio score of 5 and conservative debt levels suggest the company can fund its burn for now, so weak quality scores may reflect normal pre-revenue biotech economics rather than distress.
Quarterly losses have come in at or better than estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average EPS surprise of +6.14%, so spending appears controlled.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should land at or better than the estimate at the 2026-11-05 report and in most of the next four quarters.
CounterThe May quarter missed by -17.7%, and a loss that is merely smaller than a pessimistic estimate does not create value for an unprofitable company.
The stock is oversold (RSI 24) and below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 6.6% over 30 days, which points to a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the $17.01 support level and RSI should recover above 40 within the next quarter or two.
CounterFalling on-balance volume shows distribution, and a 52-week-range position score of 1.5 shows the stock is near its lows, so selling pressure could continue.
Institutions are accumulating shares while insiders show no net selling, which is a supportive ownership backdrop at a small $1.2B market cap.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- The insider and holder-change scores should stay above 6.0 as institutional ownership keeps rising over the next 12 months.
CounterInstitutional buying in speculative biotechs often reverses quickly after a trial readout, and the 'accumulating' signal does not prove conviction on the pipeline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning (FCF negative)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 106%
Insider
6.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.00
- ▸High IV: 106%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:5.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.26
Upside
+78.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 6d<=7d outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.26.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.8, and Insider at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 1.6, Technical at 3.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Pre Revenue Cash Burn
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.6.
- P2Losses Near Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Large Analyst Upside Gap
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $21.70, cutting upside to less than 20%.
- P4Oversold Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls below $17.01, the support level, from the current $18.07.
- P5Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifInsider score falls below 4.0 from the current 6.8.