Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
GFR · Why this verdict
Why Greenfire Resources (GFR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Greenfire Resources is growing revenue about 22% with conservative debt and a strong uptrend, but it has missed EPS estimates four straight quarters and burns cash (FCF -10% of revenue). The thesis needs earnings to stop missing while growth holds.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing about 22% YoY, with the latest quarter at roughly $179M versus $145M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should hold above $175M and sustain double-digit YoY growth over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth in an oil producer largely reflects commodity prices and volumes rather than durable share gains, so a price reversal could erase it; the revenue data is also provisional. | ||
EPS has missed estimates in each of the last 4 reported quarters, with the latest quarter at -$0.43 versus a +$0.01 estimate, so profitability is deteriorating despite higher sales. Avg surprise pct | EPS should return to at least the estimate within the next two reports, ending the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterMisses of this size may reflect one-off or non-cash charges, but there are four in a row with widening gaps, which points to a real margin problem. | ||
Business quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.5 because the company is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -10% of revenue. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin should move to break-even or better over the next 12 months as growth converts to cash. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy investment spending in growth phases can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows underlying financial health is otherwise strong. | ||
The shares trade above the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume but are overbought (RSI 73), so the uptrend is intact yet stretched. Momentum breakdown | Price should stay above the 200-day average and above the $6.49 stop level while RSI cools from overbought. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI at 73 with the price already near the top of its 52-week range makes a pullback likely, especially with earnings due in 10 days after four misses. | ||
Debt is conservative relative to peers, which gives the balance sheet room to absorb negative free cash flow. Peer-rank breakdown | Leverage should stay low and the debt score should remain high as growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued cash burn and widening EPS losses can erode the balance sheet's cushion, so conservative debt today is not a guarantee. | ||
Revenue is growing about 22% YoY, with the latest quarter at roughly $179M versus $145M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should hold above $175M and sustain double-digit YoY growth over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth in an oil producer largely reflects commodity prices and volumes rather than durable share gains, so a price reversal could erase it; the revenue data is also provisional.
EPS has missed estimates in each of the last 4 reported quarters, with the latest quarter at -$0.43 versus a +$0.01 estimate, so profitability is deteriorating despite higher sales.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should return to at least the estimate within the next two reports, ending the miss streak.
CounterMisses of this size may reflect one-off or non-cash charges, but there are four in a row with widening gaps, which points to a real margin problem.
Business quality is below the 4.0 floor at 3.5 because the company is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -10% of revenue.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin should move to break-even or better over the next 12 months as growth converts to cash.
CounterHeavy investment spending in growth phases can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows underlying financial health is otherwise strong.
The shares trade above the 200-day average with rising on-balance volume but are overbought (RSI 73), so the uptrend is intact yet stretched.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should stay above the 200-day average and above the $6.49 stop level while RSI cools from overbought.
CounterRSI at 73 with the price already near the top of its 52-week range makes a pullback likely, especially with earnings due in 10 days after four misses.
Debt is conservative relative to peers, which gives the balance sheet room to absorb negative free cash flow.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Leverage should stay low and the debt score should remain high as growth continues.
CounterContinued cash burn and widening EPS losses can erode the balance sheet's cushion, so conservative debt today is not a guarantee.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -10% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 5d<=7d outcome against Value at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.4, and Growth at 8.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Quality at 3.5, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $145M, the year-ago level, or YoY growth falls below 5%.
- P2Four Straight Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS misses the estimate by more than 100% again at the 2026-11-03 report, extending the streak to 5 quarters.
- P3Cash Burn Weakens Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below -15% of revenue from the current -10%.
- P4Overbought Uptrend Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below $6.49, the stop level, from the current $6.98.
- P5Conservative Debt Levels
Trip ifDebt-to-equity score falls below 5.0 from the current 9.9 on the risk component.