Value
9.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
GDOT · Why this verdict
Why Green Dot (GDOT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Green Dot trades at a forward P/E of 8.2x with roughly 19% revenue growth and 10.9% analyst upside, but quality scores only 1.5 out of 10 and the most recent quarter missed estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 1.5 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with return on equity and net margin near zero and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Quality score rises above 4.0 as profitability recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski F-Score of 5.6 shows the fundamentals are not collapsing, and the low quality score may reflect depressed trailing earnings. | ||
A forward P/E of 8.2x and PEG of 0.02 make the shares attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E moves toward 11x as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.02 comes from a near-zero base of earnings growth, and the multiple is cheap partly because profitability is thin. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $574.4M is about 19% above the $482.7M of a year earlier. Revenue quarters | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue data for this company is flagged as divergent between sources, and revenue dropped from $629.0M to $574.4M last quarter. | ||
The latest quarter missed ($0.26 versus $0.39) after three straight beats, with earnings due in 16 days. Last 4 quarters | EPS returns to beating consensus in the November report. | →Stable |
| CounterThe three earlier quarters beat by large margins (average surprise 45%), so the miss may be noise in volatile quarterly profits. | ||
The $13.71 analyst target is 10.9% above the $12.36 price against 5.0% downside to the stop level. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $13.71 target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterImplied volatility of 111% shows large uncertainty, and the stock is below its 200-day average, so the target may not be reached. | ||
Quality scores 1.5 out of 10, below the 4.0 floor, with return on equity and net margin near zero and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as profitability recovers.
CounterPiotroski F-Score of 5.6 shows the fundamentals are not collapsing, and the low quality score may reflect depressed trailing earnings.
A forward P/E of 8.2x and PEG of 0.02 make the shares attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E moves toward 11x as earnings are delivered.
CounterA PEG of 0.02 comes from a near-zero base of earnings growth, and the multiple is cheap partly because profitability is thin.
Quarterly revenue of $574.4M is about 19% above the $482.7M of a year earlier.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 10%.
CounterRevenue data for this company is flagged as divergent between sources, and revenue dropped from $629.0M to $574.4M last quarter.
The latest quarter missed ($0.26 versus $0.39) after three straight beats, with earnings due in 16 days.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS returns to beating consensus in the November report.
CounterThe three earlier quarters beat by large margins (average surprise 45%), so the miss may be noise in volatile quarterly profits.
The $13.71 analyst target is 10.9% above the $12.36 price against 5.0% downside to the stop level.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $13.71 target within 12 months.
CounterImplied volatility of 111% shows large uncertainty, and the stock is below its 200-day average, so the target may not be reached.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.0 |
| Volume | 8.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.7 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 8.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸High IV: 122%
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.36
Upside
+11.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 2.36.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Growth at 7.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Momentum at 4.2, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 11x from the current 8.2x.
- P2Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.5.
- P3Revenue Growth Recovery
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 8% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Recent Earnings Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12.36, eliminating upside from the current price.