Value
9.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
GDOT · Why this verdict
Why Green Dot (GDOT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens as attractively valued, with a forward P/E near 8x and a PEG near 0.08, even though the engine's quality score sits well below its 4.0 floor at 2.1. Valuation breakdown | Either the quality score should climb above the 4.0 floor, or the valuation discount should widen further as the market prices in the quality gap. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuation paired with sub-floor quality is often a value trap — the discount can persist or widen if underlying business quality keeps deteriorating. | ||
Green Dot has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with strong average surprises supporting a case for consistent execution. Earnings | The beat streak should extend past 4 consecutive quarters at the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterA beat streak this consistent can reflect deliberately conservative guidance rather than genuine acceleration, and a single miss would break the pattern that underpins this pillar. | ||
The technical setup shows a golden cross with price above all major moving averages and bullish MACD, which the engine classifies as a breakout pattern. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its moving averages and the breakout should follow through with continued upward momentum. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum notes also flag falling on-balance-volume, suggesting the breakout may lack conviction from broad participation. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at 0.4, below the 1.5 threshold required for a favorable risk/reward setup, capping the stock's upside relative to downside risk. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should rise back above the 1.5 gate threshold as either upside expands or downside risk contracts. | →Stable |
| CounterA low asymmetry ratio near a fully-priced analyst target can persist for a long time if the stock simply trades sideways near fair value. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued, with a forward P/E near 8x and a PEG near 0.08, even though the engine's quality score sits well below its 4.0 floor at 2.1.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Either the quality score should climb above the 4.0 floor, or the valuation discount should widen further as the market prices in the quality gap.
CounterCheap valuation paired with sub-floor quality is often a value trap — the discount can persist or widen if underlying business quality keeps deteriorating.
Green Dot has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with strong average surprises supporting a case for consistent execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend past 4 consecutive quarters at the next earnings report.
CounterA beat streak this consistent can reflect deliberately conservative guidance rather than genuine acceleration, and a single miss would break the pattern that underpins this pillar.
The technical setup shows a golden cross with price above all major moving averages and bullish MACD, which the engine classifies as a breakout pattern.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its moving averages and the breakout should follow through with continued upward momentum.
CounterMomentum notes also flag falling on-balance-volume, suggesting the breakout may lack conviction from broad participation.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at 0.4, below the 1.5 threshold required for a favorable risk/reward setup, capping the stock's upside relative to downside risk.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise back above the 1.5 gate threshold as either upside expands or downside risk contracts.
CounterA low asymmetry ratio near a fully-priced analyst target can persist for a long time if the stock simply trades sideways near fair value.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Green Dot combines a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a technical breakout with deep value metrics, but the engine's quality score sits well below its floor and the asymmetry gate has failed, capping near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| beta | 8.0 |
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.72
Upside
+3.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.9, Growth at 8.4, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Momentum at 3.6, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifBeat count falls below 4 out of the trailing 4 quarters after the next earnings report.
- P2Deep Value Versus Quality Floor
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x, more than double the current ~8x, erasing the valuation discount.
- P3Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5, reversing the current breakout signal above all moving averages.
- P4Asymmetry Gate Failure Caps Upside
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, clearing the gate the engine currently fails at 0.4.