Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.21
- ▸Attractively valued
FSUN · Why this verdict
Why FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
FirstSun is in a momentum-continuation setup per the model, with RSI at 64 and a bullish MACD signaling the recent uptrend remains intact. Chart pattern detection | RSI should stay in the 50-70 range without breaking down over the next 12 months for the trend-continuation thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 64 is approaching overbought territory, and momentum-continuation setups can reverse sharply once RSI crosses into the 70s. | ||
FirstSun trades at a forward P/E of about 8.3x with a very low PEG ratio of 0.21, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months for the deep-value thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterAn unusually low PEG can reflect overly optimistic consensus growth estimates for a regional bank rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
A negative news modifier has downgraded the model's stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, layering a fresh adverse signal on top of an otherwise constructive setup. Warnings | The news modifier should clear back to neutral over the next 12 months without recurrence of adverse news. | →Stable |
| CounterNews-driven modifiers tend to be transient and often normalize within a quarter once the specific news event is fully priced in. | ||
FirstSun has missed earnings in 2 of its last 4 quarters, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns tied to those misses. Bear case | The company should return to at least 3 of 4 quarters beating estimates over the next year for execution concerns to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 2 misses were modest, and the company still posted 2 beats in the same period, showing a mixed rather than clearly deteriorating trend. | ||
FirstSun is in a momentum-continuation setup per the model, with RSI at 64 and a bullish MACD signaling the recent uptrend remains intact.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- RSI should stay in the 50-70 range without breaking down over the next 12 months for the trend-continuation thesis to hold.
CounterAn RSI of 64 is approaching overbought territory, and momentum-continuation setups can reverse sharply once RSI crosses into the 70s.
FirstSun trades at a forward P/E of about 8.3x with a very low PEG ratio of 0.21, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months for the deep-value thesis to hold.
CounterAn unusually low PEG can reflect overly optimistic consensus growth estimates for a regional bank rather than a genuine bargain.
A negative news modifier has downgraded the model's stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, layering a fresh adverse signal on top of an otherwise constructive setup.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier should clear back to neutral over the next 12 months without recurrence of adverse news.
CounterNews-driven modifiers tend to be transient and often normalize within a quarter once the specific news event is fully priced in.
FirstSun has missed earnings in 2 of its last 4 quarters, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns tied to those misses.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least 3 of 4 quarters beating estimates over the next year for execution concerns to ease.
CounterThe 2 misses were modest, and the company still posted 2 beats in the same period, showing a mixed rather than clearly deteriorating trend.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FirstSun Capital Bancorp shows constructive momentum and a cheap valuation, but a fresh negative news-driven downgrade and a mixed earnings record introduce near-term uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.7 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.5 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.17
Upside
+1.2%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Peer rank at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Insider at 7.5, and Growth at 7.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.1, Catalyst at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Momentum Trend Continuation
Trip ifRSI rises above 75 or MACD turns bearish, breaking the momentum-continuation trend.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.21.
- P3Negative News Driven Downgrade
Trip ifThe news modifier rises to 0 or above for more than 2 consecutive months without new adverse news.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company posts a negative earnings surprise that falls below 0% in its next reported quarter (due 2026-07-27), extending the miss pattern to 3 of 5.