Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
FSTR · Why this verdict
Why L.B. Foster (FSTR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
L.B. Foster is growing revenue 24% year-over-year and is ranked an industry growth leader by the model's peer analysis. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months for the growth-leader thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterRail-infrastructure suppliers often see growth driven by lumpy, large contract awards rather than steady demand, making the growth rate hard to extrapolate. | ||
The company converts earnings into cash exceptionally well, with free cash flow running at 315% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should stay above 150% over the next 12 months for the cash-quality thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA 315% conversion ratio can reflect working-capital timing (e.g., a large receivables collection) rather than a sustainable cash-generation rate. | ||
L.B. Foster has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, including two misses worse than -35%, before rebounding with a large beat in the most recent quarter. Bear case | The company should sustain the recent beat with at least one more consecutive beat in its next report on 2026-08-10. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter beat by 165%, which could signal the miss streak has already ended and the trend is turning. | ||
A negative news modifier has downgraded the model's stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, reflecting a fresh adverse news development layered on top of the existing mixed fundamental picture. Warnings | The news modifier should clear (return to neutral or positive) over the next 12 months without a recurrence of adverse news. | →Stable |
| CounterNews-driven modifiers are often short-lived and can reverse quickly once the market fully digests the specific news item. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst target, with the model showing sharply negative asymmetry (-2.4), about 8.5% downside risk against -20.5% modeled upside. Engine gate (failed) | A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or downside should shrink, for the risk/reward to turn positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA small-cap name below institutional reach can re-rate quickly on a single positive catalyst, making a stale price target a weak ceiling. | ||
L.B. Foster is growing revenue 24% year-over-year and is ranked an industry growth leader by the model's peer analysis.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months for the growth-leader thesis to hold.
CounterRail-infrastructure suppliers often see growth driven by lumpy, large contract awards rather than steady demand, making the growth rate hard to extrapolate.
The company converts earnings into cash exceptionally well, with free cash flow running at 315% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should stay above 150% over the next 12 months for the cash-quality thesis to hold.
CounterA 315% conversion ratio can reflect working-capital timing (e.g., a large receivables collection) rather than a sustainable cash-generation rate.
L.B. Foster has missed earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters, including two misses worse than -35%, before rebounding with a large beat in the most recent quarter.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should sustain the recent beat with at least one more consecutive beat in its next report on 2026-08-10.
CounterThe most recent quarter beat by 165%, which could signal the miss streak has already ended and the trend is turning.
A negative news modifier has downgraded the model's stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, reflecting a fresh adverse news development layered on top of the existing mixed fundamental picture.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier should clear (return to neutral or positive) over the next 12 months without a recurrence of adverse news.
CounterNews-driven modifiers are often short-lived and can reverse quickly once the market fully digests the specific news item.
The stock has already reached its analyst target, with the model showing sharply negative asymmetry (-2.4), about 8.5% downside risk against -20.5% modeled upside.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or downside should shrink, for the risk/reward to turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterA small-cap name below institutional reach can re-rate quickly on a single positive catalyst, making a stale price target a weak ceiling.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
L.B. Foster pairs strong revenue growth and excellent cash conversion with a fresh negative news-driven downgrade, a failed momentum gate, and a history of earnings misses that a big recent beat has only partially offset.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.3 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 315% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.2 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 8.1 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.44
Upside
-19.5%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 2.7. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.5, Technical at 7.1, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Catalyst at 4.1, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 100% from the current 315%.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company posts a negative earnings surprise that falls below 0% in its next reported quarter (due 2026-08-10), extending the prior miss pattern.
- P4Negative News Driven Downgrade
Trip ifThe news modifier rises to 0 or above for more than 2 consecutive months without new adverse news.
- P5Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifA new analyst target sets modeled upside above 5% while downside stays below 8.5%.