Value
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
FRNM · Why this verdict
Why Freenome (FRNM) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 106% year over year, making Freenome an industry growth leader in diagnostics. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 40% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth from a small base can fade quickly, and with net and gross margin scores at 0.0, growth has not yet translated into profit. | ||
Quality of 2.4 is below the 4.0 floor, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9, supporting an exit stance. Warnings | Quality score climbs above 4.0 as margins turn positive over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA current ratio score of 4.2 and strong growth suggest the low quality score may reflect early-stage losses rather than a broken business. | ||
Price is already 0.8% above the analyst target (upside of -0.8%) against 11.8% downside, and the valuation is flagged as rich, so asymmetry is negative. Key risks | Upside to the target reopens above 15% only after a pullback or higher analyst targets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag fast growers, and 106% revenue growth could drive target upgrades that restore upside. | ||
Momentum of 2.9 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with volume distribution and falling on-balance volume pointing to selling pressure. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 with rising on-balance volume before a position is justified. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe stock remains above its 200-day average, so the weakness may be a normal pullback within an uptrend. | ||
News sentiment is negative at -0.35 across 6 articles, which weighs on near-term sentiment. Sentiment breakdown | News sentiment turns positive above +0.20 as growth is validated. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSix articles is a small sample, and sentiment is a lagging indicator that can reverse quickly on a single positive catalyst. | ||
Revenue is growing 106% year over year, making Freenome an industry growth leader in diagnostics.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 40% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth from a small base can fade quickly, and with net and gross margin scores at 0.0, growth has not yet translated into profit.
Quality of 2.4 is below the 4.0 floor, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9, supporting an exit stance.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality score climbs above 4.0 as margins turn positive over 12 months.
CounterA current ratio score of 4.2 and strong growth suggest the low quality score may reflect early-stage losses rather than a broken business.
Price is already 0.8% above the analyst target (upside of -0.8%) against 11.8% downside, and the valuation is flagged as rich, so asymmetry is negative.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Upside to the target reopens above 15% only after a pullback or higher analyst targets.
CounterAnalyst targets lag fast growers, and 106% revenue growth could drive target upgrades that restore upside.
Momentum of 2.9 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with volume distribution and falling on-balance volume pointing to selling pressure.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 with rising on-balance volume before a position is justified.
CounterThe stock remains above its 200-day average, so the weakness may be a normal pullback within an uptrend.
News sentiment is negative at -0.35 across 6 articles, which weighs on near-term sentiment.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- News sentiment turns positive above +0.20 as growth is validated.
CounterSix articles is a small sample, and sentiment is a lagging indicator that can reverse quickly on a single positive catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 106% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.9 |
| MACD | 3.0 |
| OBV | 6.1 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunity
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
| erm sentiment | 6.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:5.01
Reward-to-Risk
1.10
Upside
+16.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.5<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.10.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Momentum at 4.5, and Value at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 40% YoY from current 106%.
- P2Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from current 2.4 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target rises above 15% from current -0.8%.
- P4Negative Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 2.9.
- P5Negative News Sentiment
Trip ifLLM news sentiment rises above +0.20 from current -0.35.