Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.36
FRBA · Why this verdict
Why First Bank (FRBA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Bank has strong price momentum and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but it trades 10.9% above its analyst target near its 52-week high with a mixed earnings record and a valuation that is not cheap relative to growth (PEG 2.44).
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 and margins are strong at 32%, but return on equity is low (component 3.2) and there is no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above while quality rises above 6.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBank margins are structurally flattering, and a 0.7 return-on-assets component shows thin real profitability. | ||
Momentum scores 8.4 out of 10 with the stock above its 200-day average, rising volume accumulation and an overbought RSI of 78. Momentum breakdown | The stock holds above its 200-day average and momentum stays above 6.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI of 78 and a price within 0.6% of the 52-week high mean the move is stretched, and overbought bank stocks frequently mean-revert. | ||
A forward P/E of 10.5x looks modest but the PEG of 2.44 shows the price already assumes more growth than earnings are delivering. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth accelerates, bringing the PEG toward 1.5 without the price rising. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth scores only 3.2 out of 10, so a PEG this high suggests the shares are fairly priced rather than discounted. | ||
At $19.39 the stock trades 10.9% above the $17.28 analyst target, leaving no analyst-supported upside. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above the current price after the recent earnings beat. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTargets frequently trail rallies at small banks, and the October beat ($0.49 versus $0.44) may already prompt upward revisions. | ||
Over the last four quarters EPS beat twice, was in line once and missed once ($0.30 versus $0.46 in April), for an average surprise of -5.46%. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in the next two reports, lifting the average surprise above zero. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe last two quarters were beats ($0.49 versus $0.44 and $0.43 versus $0.40), so the April miss may be a one-off. | ||
The Piotroski F-Score is 7/9 and margins are strong at 32%, but return on equity is low (component 3.2) and there is no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above while quality rises above 6.0.
CounterBank margins are structurally flattering, and a 0.7 return-on-assets component shows thin real profitability.
Momentum scores 8.4 out of 10 with the stock above its 200-day average, rising volume accumulation and an overbought RSI of 78.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock holds above its 200-day average and momentum stays above 6.0.
CounterAn RSI of 78 and a price within 0.6% of the 52-week high mean the move is stretched, and overbought bank stocks frequently mean-revert.
A forward P/E of 10.5x looks modest but the PEG of 2.44 shows the price already assumes more growth than earnings are delivering.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth accelerates, bringing the PEG toward 1.5 without the price rising.
CounterGrowth scores only 3.2 out of 10, so a PEG this high suggests the shares are fairly priced rather than discounted.
At $19.39 the stock trades 10.9% above the $17.28 analyst target, leaving no analyst-supported upside.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price after the recent earnings beat.
CounterTargets frequently trail rallies at small banks, and the October beat ($0.49 versus $0.44) may already prompt upward revisions.
Over the last four quarters EPS beat twice, was in line once and missed once ($0.30 versus $0.46 in April), for an average surprise of -5.46%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in the next two reports, lifting the average surprise above zero.
CounterThe last two quarters were beats ($0.49 versus $0.44 and $0.43 versus $0.40), so the April miss may be a one-off.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.33 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.75
Upside
-9.2%
Downside
12.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.7>=5.5. Top dim: Momentum at 7.7; weakest: Growth at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.7, Value at 6.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 3.2, Technical at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 8.4.
- P2Fair Valuation High Peg
Trip ifPEG ratio stays above 2.5 while forward P/E exceeds 12x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $21.33, at least 10% above the current $19.39 price.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Solid Piotroski Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 from the current 7.