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FPSForgent Power Solutions, Inc.Sell6.4·$28.85-9.33%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Forgent Power Solutions is delivering triple-digit revenue growth but at roughly 50 times forward earnings with the stock already priced above the analyst consensus target and an unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio, making the current setup unattractive for new positions despite the compelling growth profile.

Thesis pillars

  • Expensive Valuation Limits Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Triple Digit Revenue AccelerationStable
  • Stock Above Analyst Consensus TargetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. (FPS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthShortModerate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.85: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.95; Below-average business quality.

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. designs and manufactures electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid and energy-intensive industrial facilities. The company's products include automatic transfer switches (ATS), gear eHouses, generator connection... Read more

$28.85+82.0% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#4 of 24 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $27.14Target $52.11(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 6.3:1
Analyst target$59.90+107.6%10 analysts
$52.11our TP
$28.85price
$59.90mean
$73

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.85: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.95; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)1591.0
P/E (Fwd)27.3
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA51.8
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE
Rev Growth103.4%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.95bearish
IV215%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5A.R:R 6.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $27.98Resistance $40.19

Price Targets

$27
$52
A.Upside+82.0%
A.R:R6.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0)

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for FPS.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FPS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.85: Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.4/10 and A.R:R 6.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 21%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.95; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $27.14. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FPS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.11 (+82.0% upside). Prior stop was $27.14. Stop-loss: $27.14.

What are the risks of investing in FPS?

Risk below floor (3.0 < 3.0).

Is FPS overvalued or undervalued?

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. trades at a P/E of 1591.0 (forward 27.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FPS?

14 analysts cover FPS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $60.

What does Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. do?Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. designs and manufactures electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the...

Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. designs and manufactures electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid and energy-intensive industrial facilities. The company's products include automatic transfer switches (ATS), gear eHouses, generator connection cabinets, low voltage switchgear, low voltage transformers, medium voltage switchgear, medium voltage VPI transformers, padmount transformers, panelboards, paralleling switchgear, PDU transformers, power distribution units, power skids, remote power panels, substation transformers, switchboards, tap boxes, and UPS eHouses. It also provides maintenance, testing, repair, modernization, start-up and commissioning and aftermarket retrofit services. It serves technology, power, utility and industrial companies. The company was founded in 2023 and is based in Dayton, Minnesota.

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