Value
7.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸Attractively valued
FOXA · Why this verdict
Why Fox (FOXA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fox Corporation combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak (average surprise 40%) with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a forward P/E of 11.4x, but weak cash conversion, 28% short interest and only 7.6% analyst upside temper the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS beat estimates in all four recent quarters with an average surprise of 40.4%, including $1.79 versus $1.38 in August. Earnings | EPS continues to beat consensus over the next four reports. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are being set far too low, which makes surprises large but may not reflect underlying growth; earnings are also seasonally uneven across news and sports cycles. | ||
A forward P/E of 11.4x is attractively valued, and the stock is outperforming peers. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 14x as earnings hold up over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCommunication services carries a -0.8 sector modifier and the analyst target is only 7.6% above the price, so the cheapness is partly priced in. | ||
Free cash flow is only 33% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, despite a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow rises to at least 70% of net income within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash flow in media is lumpy because of rights payments and timing, so a single-year ratio can overstate the problem. | ||
Short interest stands at 28%, a large bearish position against a company with a perfect beat streak. Key risks | Short interest falls below 20% as earnings continue to beat. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShorts may be hedging the dual share classes or expecting a cyclical advertising downturn that the beat streak does not capture. | ||
Revenue grew 28% year over year to $4.21B in the latest quarter from $3.29B a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 10%. | →Stable |
| CounterPolitical-cycle advertising and event-driven sports revenue make comparisons uneven; the quarter before was $3.99B against $5.18B and $3.74B in other periods. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all four recent quarters with an average surprise of 40.4%, including $1.79 versus $1.38 in August.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat consensus over the next four reports.
CounterEstimates are being set far too low, which makes surprises large but may not reflect underlying growth; earnings are also seasonally uneven across news and sports cycles.
A forward P/E of 11.4x is attractively valued, and the stock is outperforming peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 14x as earnings hold up over the next 12 months.
CounterCommunication services carries a -0.8 sector modifier and the analyst target is only 7.6% above the price, so the cheapness is partly priced in.
Free cash flow is only 33% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, despite a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow rises to at least 70% of net income within 12 months.
CounterCash flow in media is lumpy because of rights payments and timing, so a single-year ratio can overstate the problem.
Short interest stands at 28%, a large bearish position against a company with a perfect beat streak.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 20% as earnings continue to beat.
CounterShorts may be hedging the dual share classes or expecting a cyclical advertising downturn that the beat streak does not capture.
Revenue grew 28% year over year to $4.21B in the latest quarter from $3.29B a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth stays above 10%.
CounterPolitical-cycle advertising and event-driven sports revenue make comparisons uneven; the quarter before was $3.99B against $5.18B and $3.74B in other periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 33% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 28% YoY
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 6.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 6.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸High short interest: 29%
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.24
Upside
+13.1%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Momentum at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.4, and Peer rank at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 4.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0, and Growth at 6.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Reasonable Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 11.4x.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above 70% of net income from the current 33%.
- P4High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 15% of float from the current 28%.
- P5Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.