Exceptional 39% year-over-year revenue growth and three consecutive recent earnings beats are credible positives, but 76.6% product concentration in optical communications, negative free cash flow conversion, and momentum below the minimum threshold combine to make the current setup unattractive for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
- High Product Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- Negative Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Fabrinet (FN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Electronic Components
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $414.05: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-number-of-suppliers (critical materials).
Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to OEMs of optical communications components, industrial lasers, automotive components, medical devices, and sensors, operating roughly 3.7 million... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $414.05: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-number-of-suppliers (critical materials). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Fabrinet
Latest news
- NEWS Victory RS Small Cap Growth Fund's Fabrinet(FN) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Fabrinet (FN) price target increased by 14.58% to 677.22 - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Fabrinet stock lags AI peers despite strong gro... - Pluang — Pluang negative
- NEWS Fabrinet: A Compelling AI Infrastructure Opportunity (NYSE:FN) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) Shares Gap Up - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-09-14T07:27:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductoptical communications products77%10-K Item 1: 'Our percentage of revenues from optical communications products decreased from 79.4% in fiscal year 2024 to 76.6% in fiscal year 2025, while our percentage of revenues from automotive, industrial lasers, and other markets increased from 20.6% in fiscal year 2024 to 23.4% in fiscal year 2025.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source or limited-number-of-suppliers (critical materials)10-K Item 1A: 'We purchase some of the critical materials used in certain of our products from a single source or a limited number of suppliers.'
- MEDIUMCustomersmall number of customers10-K Item 1A: 'Our sales depend on a small number of customers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $414.05: Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-number-of-suppliers (critical materials). Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $385.56. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $638.68 (+54.1% upside). Prior stop was $385.56. Stop-loss: $385.56.
Concentration risk — Product: optical communications products (76.6%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source or limited-number-of-suppliers (critical materials); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).
Fabrinet trades at a P/E of 31.7 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover FN with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $734.
What does Fabrinet do?Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing...
Fabrinet provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to OEMs of optical communications components, industrial lasers, automotive components, medical devices, and sensors, operating roughly 3.7 million square feet of facilities primarily in Thailand. The company generated $3.42 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025, up 18.6% from $2.88 billion in fiscal 2024, with optical communications products contributing 76.6% of revenue and automotive, industrial lasers, and other markets the remaining 23.4%. Fabrinet is often the s