Value
5.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 3.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.5x
- ▸PEG: 3.43
FIZZ · Why this verdict
Why National Beverage (FIZZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Despite high-quality business fundamentals including a 38% return on equity and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9, the stock faces a confirmed death cross, two earnings misses in the last four quarters, negative risk/reward geometry, and a single-commodity concentration risk in aluminum cans — creating a cautious near-term setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a put/call ratio of 1.5 indicate elevated bearish options positioning and deteriorating technical structure — suggesting near-term selling pressure persists. Warnings | OBV continues declining and price stays below the 200-day moving average for the next 60 days, confirming that the technical pressure has not yet been absorbed. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum sits above the minimum gate at 4.9 with a bullish MACD and RSI at 55, and the pattern is characterized as a continuation setup — the death cross may prove a false signal if even a modest positive earnings catalyst re-engages buyers. | ||
A return on equity of 38%, operating margins of 16%, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 reflect a financially healthy business with a strong balance sheet — the quality profile is well above average for the peer group. Quality breakdown | Return on equity remains above 30% and operating margins stay above 12% over the next two annual reporting periods, confirming the quality profile is sustainable. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow runs at only 64% of net income, indicating that earnings quality is not fully backed by cash generation — a persistent shortfall could signal accrual-based reporting inflation or rising working capital demands that erode real cash returns over time. | ||
Two misses and two inline prints over the last four quarters with an average surprise of negative 1.7% indicate the business is no longer consistently beating estimates, weakening the earnings reliability case. Earnings | The miss/inline pattern continues — at least 2 of the next 4 quarters come in at or below consensus, confirming that the deterioration in earnings delivery is not yet resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe misses are small in magnitude (within 5% of estimates), the inline results are near-beats, and for a consumer staple business, this level of near-miss frequency may reflect typical estimation noise rather than a fundamentally deteriorating trend. | ||
With only 2.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target and unfavorable risk/reward geometry where downside exceeds upside, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the known risks — including a 13% short interest and elevated put/call ratio of 1.5. Price targets | Stock fails to sustain above the analyst consensus target of $37.44 over the next 6 months, and short interest remains above 10%, confirming the limited upside thesis. | →Stable |
| CounterA 13% short interest creates meaningful short-squeeze potential; if the business delivers even a modest positive earnings surprise with earnings approaching in 15 days, rapid covering could generate a disproportionate upside move beyond the narrow technical target. | ||
A confirmed death cross, falling volume accumulation (declining OBV), and a put/call ratio of 1.5 indicate elevated bearish options positioning and deteriorating technical structure — suggesting near-term selling pressure persists.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- OBV continues declining and price stays below the 200-day moving average for the next 60 days, confirming that the technical pressure has not yet been absorbed.
CounterMomentum sits above the minimum gate at 4.9 with a bullish MACD and RSI at 55, and the pattern is characterized as a continuation setup — the death cross may prove a false signal if even a modest positive earnings catalyst re-engages buyers.
A return on equity of 38%, operating margins of 16%, and a Piotroski F-score of 8 out of 9 reflect a financially healthy business with a strong balance sheet — the quality profile is well above average for the peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity remains above 30% and operating margins stay above 12% over the next two annual reporting periods, confirming the quality profile is sustainable.
CounterFree cash flow runs at only 64% of net income, indicating that earnings quality is not fully backed by cash generation — a persistent shortfall could signal accrual-based reporting inflation or rising working capital demands that erode real cash returns over time.
Two misses and two inline prints over the last four quarters with an average surprise of negative 1.7% indicate the business is no longer consistently beating estimates, weakening the earnings reliability case.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss/inline pattern continues — at least 2 of the next 4 quarters come in at or below consensus, confirming that the deterioration in earnings delivery is not yet resolved.
CounterThe misses are small in magnitude (within 5% of estimates), the inline results are near-beats, and for a consumer staple business, this level of near-miss frequency may reflect typical estimation noise rather than a fundamentally deteriorating trend.
With only 2.4% headroom to the analyst consensus target and unfavorable risk/reward geometry where downside exceeds upside, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the known risks — including a 13% short interest and elevated put/call ratio of 1.5.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Stock fails to sustain above the analyst consensus target of $37.44 over the next 6 months, and short interest remains above 10%, confirming the limited upside thesis.
CounterA 13% short interest creates meaningful short-squeeze potential; if the business delivers even a modest positive earnings surprise with earnings approaching in 15 days, rapid covering could generate a disproportionate upside move beyond the narrow technical target.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 7.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.7 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 75% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 3.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 4.4 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 0.3 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High short interest: 18%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 8.50
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.63
Upside
-23.3%
Downside
14.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.5<4.5 outcome against Quality at 7.4 and asymmetric R:R of -1.63.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.4, Peer rank at 6.1, and Value at 5.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Growth at 2.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Core Business
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive annual periods, eroding the margin profile that underpins the high-quality characterization.
- P2Earnings Delivery Concerns
Trip ifEPS positive surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current pattern of misses and inline results.
- P3Technical Structural Headwinds
Trip if50-day moving average crosses above 200-day moving average and OBV rises above its 30-day average for 20 consecutive days, confirming technical reversal.
- P4Limited Upside Poor Risk Reward
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $45, restoring more than 23% upside from the current price of $36.55.