Value
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.1 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 54.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.70
- ▸Expensive valuation
FIGS · Why this verdict
Why FIGS (FIGS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Healthy revenue growth and constructive price momentum are supported by a defensible competitive position in healthcare apparel, but a forward P/E of 38.7x and a put/call ratio of 2.00 signal meaningful execution risk and limited room for disappointment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 suggest the brand's competitive position is durable, with a balance sheet discipline that limits the risk of operational self-inflicted wounds. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 8 for the next two annual reporting periods, confirming continued financial health. | →Stable |
| CounterProduct concentration in core scrubwear creates vulnerability — if fashion trends shift or hospital procurement channels consolidate, pricing power could erode quickly and the moat could prove narrower than current scores suggest. | ||
At a forward P/E of 38.7x, the stock is priced for near-perfection in a consumer-facing apparel business — leaving limited room for any growth miss or margin compression without a significant de-rating. Valuation breakdown | If the valuation is justified, revenue growth stays above 25% year over year and operating margins expand over the next four quarters, supporting the multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.84 suggests the growth-adjusted price is reasonable; if management sustains 28% growth, the premium multiple can be supported by earnings growing into the price over time. | ||
Revenue is growing 28% year over year and the stock is above its 200-day moving average with volume accumulating on a rising on-balance basis — a constructive setup where business momentum and price momentum are aligned. Momentum breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 20% year over year for the next two fiscal quarters and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterProduct concentration in core scrubwear styles means topline growth is tied to a single product category; any slippage in healthcare market share or brand relevance could rapidly slow the growth engine. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 2.00 — twice as many open put contracts as calls — and implied volatility is elevated at 85%, signaling that the options market is pricing in substantial downside risk over the coming quarter. Risk breakdown | For this skepticism to resolve, the put/call ratio would need to compress below 1.0 while implied volatility returns toward historical norms. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can reflect hedging activity by long investors rather than pure bearish positioning, and may resolve quickly if the next earnings print demonstrates continued outperformance. | ||
A wide economic moat and a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 suggest the brand's competitive position is durable, with a balance sheet discipline that limits the risk of operational self-inflicted wounds.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score remains at or above 8 for the next two annual reporting periods, confirming continued financial health.
CounterProduct concentration in core scrubwear creates vulnerability — if fashion trends shift or hospital procurement channels consolidate, pricing power could erode quickly and the moat could prove narrower than current scores suggest.
At a forward P/E of 38.7x, the stock is priced for near-perfection in a consumer-facing apparel business — leaving limited room for any growth miss or margin compression without a significant de-rating.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If the valuation is justified, revenue growth stays above 25% year over year and operating margins expand over the next four quarters, supporting the multiple.
CounterA PEG of 0.84 suggests the growth-adjusted price is reasonable; if management sustains 28% growth, the premium multiple can be supported by earnings growing into the price over time.
Revenue is growing 28% year over year and the stock is above its 200-day moving average with volume accumulating on a rising on-balance basis — a constructive setup where business momentum and price momentum are aligned.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 20% year over year for the next two fiscal quarters and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average.
CounterProduct concentration in core scrubwear styles means topline growth is tied to a single product category; any slippage in healthcare market share or brand relevance could rapidly slow the growth engine.
The put/call ratio stands at 2.00 — twice as many open put contracts as calls — and implied volatility is elevated at 85%, signaling that the options market is pricing in substantial downside risk over the coming quarter.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- For this skepticism to resolve, the put/call ratio would need to compress below 1.0 while implied volatility returns toward historical norms.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can reflect hedging activity by long investors rather than pure bearish positioning, and may resolve quickly if the next earnings print demonstrates continued outperformance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 9.8 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 127% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 4.8 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 87)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 3.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.4 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 22%
- ▸High IV: 97%
- ▸Above max pain $10
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.30
Upside
-19.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.30 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Quality at 7.3; the weakest are Value at 3.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, and Technical at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Growth Momentum Aligned
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Defensible Healthcare Apparel Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 for 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
- P3Expensive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 20x following a price decline that meaningfully reduces the valuation premium.
- P4Elevated Options Market Skepticism
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 0.80 for 4 consecutive weeks.