Value
0.0/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
FBYD · Why this verdict
Why Falcon's Beyond Global (FBYD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Falcon's Beyond is growing revenue 120% YoY but burns cash at 186% of revenue, trades 73% off its high in a confirmed downtrend, and has seen insiders sell $37.5M (9.8% of market cap); at $381M market cap it is below the $400M investable minimum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is -186% of revenue and quality scores 2.5 with ROE, ROA, operating and net margins all at 0.0. Quality breakdown | Free cash burn should fall below 100% of revenue as scale builds. | →Stable |
| CounterGross margin scores 9.0 and the moat score is 6.5, so unit economics may support margin expansion once fixed costs are covered. | ||
Revenue is growing strongly at 120% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth from a small base can reverse quickly, and no earnings data is available to confirm the revenue trajectory. | ||
Insiders sold $37.5M of stock in 90 days, equal to 9.822% of market cap across 2 sales, with no buys. Insider | Insider net selling should drop below 1% of market cap over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBoth sales are unpriced and valued with a last-price proxy, and large-holder sales around financing or lockup events may not signal a view on the business. | ||
Market cap of $381M is below the $400M minimum, and the stock trades below its 200-day average with a slope of -10.7% over 30 days after a 73% drawdown. Bear case | Market cap should rise above $400M and momentum score above 4.5 from 3.2. | →Stable |
| CounterA 73% drawdown plus a Bollinger score of 10.0 shows the price is stretched to the downside, which can precede a sharp rebound, and institutions are accumulating. | ||
Free cash flow is -186% of revenue and quality scores 2.5 with ROE, ROA, operating and net margins all at 0.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash burn should fall below 100% of revenue as scale builds.
CounterGross margin scores 9.0 and the moat score is 6.5, so unit economics may support margin expansion once fixed costs are covered.
Revenue is growing strongly at 120% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth from a small base can reverse quickly, and no earnings data is available to confirm the revenue trajectory.
Insiders sold $37.5M of stock in 90 days, equal to 9.822% of market cap across 2 sales, with no buys.
↓DeterioratingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider net selling should drop below 1% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterBoth sales are unpriced and valued with a last-price proxy, and large-holder sales around financing or lockup events may not signal a view on the business.
Market cap of $381M is below the $400M minimum, and the stock trades below its 200-day average with a slope of -10.7% over 30 days after a 73% drawdown.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Market cap should rise above $400M and momentum score above 4.5 from 3.2.
CounterA 73% drawdown plus a Bollinger score of 10.0 shows the price is stretched to the downside, which can precede a sharp rebound, and institutions are accumulating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -186% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 120% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $36,653,578 (9.822% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $373M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- INSIDER:9.82%=EXTREME
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
13.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 26, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -74% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.0, and Insider at 5.2; the weakest are Value at 0.0, Quality at 2.5, and Momentum at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY.
- P2Severe Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash burn exceeds 200% of revenue.
- P3Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 15% of market cap over 90 days.
- P4Downtrend Below Market Cap Minimum
Trip ifShare price drops to $7.32 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $7.87.