Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
- ▸Attractively valued
FBIZ · Why this verdict
Why First Business Financial Servic (FBIZ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Despite the stretched price, the stock still screens attractively valued (forward P/E 9.5x, PEG 1.06) with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and 31% margins. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x and the Piotroski F-Score should remain at or above 7/9 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe value score also notes no competitive moat, meaning valuation support could erode quickly if growth slows in a commoditized regional banking market. | ||
FBIZ has beaten earnings estimates for 4 consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 9.84%, and the engine flags this as a CATALYST edge ahead of earnings in 19 days. Earnings | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter with positive surprise at the July 23, 2026 earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterA 4-for-4 beat streak raises the bar for a 5th beat, and any deceleration in surprise magnitude could disappoint a market already pricing in continued outperformance. | ||
The stock has reached its analyst/technical target with price at $63.85 against a take-profit of $64.18, leaving essentially no remaining upside (-9.5%). Estimated upside | A new, higher price target should be established as upside_pct moves back into positive territory over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterContinued earnings beats could justify analysts raising price targets, restoring upside even without the stock pulling back. | ||
The V9 asymmetry gate failed (-0.8), meaning downside risk is not adequately compensated by remaining upside at current prices. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months as either price consolidates or the target is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterAsymmetry gates are mechanically tied to price versus target and can flip quickly on a single earnings-driven target revision. | ||
The setup is classified as a BREAKOUT with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, and bullish MACD, per the engine's technical setup rationale. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above all key moving averages and RSI should remain in the 50-70 bullish range over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBreakout setups near 52-week highs with a failed asymmetry gate are prone to sharp reversals once momentum buyers are exhausted. | ||
Despite the stretched price, the stock still screens attractively valued (forward P/E 9.5x, PEG 1.06) with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and 31% margins.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x and the Piotroski F-Score should remain at or above 7/9 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe value score also notes no competitive moat, meaning valuation support could erode quickly if growth slows in a commoditized regional banking market.
FBIZ has beaten earnings estimates for 4 consecutive quarters with an average surprise of 9.84%, and the engine flags this as a CATALYST edge ahead of earnings in 19 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter with positive surprise at the July 23, 2026 earnings report.
CounterA 4-for-4 beat streak raises the bar for a 5th beat, and any deceleration in surprise magnitude could disappoint a market already pricing in continued outperformance.
The stock has reached its analyst/technical target with price at $63.85 against a take-profit of $64.18, leaving essentially no remaining upside (-9.5%).
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- A new, higher price target should be established as upside_pct moves back into positive territory over the next 12 months.
CounterContinued earnings beats could justify analysts raising price targets, restoring upside even without the stock pulling back.
The V9 asymmetry gate failed (-0.8), meaning downside risk is not adequately compensated by remaining upside at current prices.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, above 0, over the next 12 months as either price consolidates or the target is raised.
CounterAsymmetry gates are mechanically tied to price versus target and can flip quickly on a single earnings-driven target revision.
The setup is classified as a BREAKOUT with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, and bullish MACD, per the engine's technical setup rationale.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above all key moving averages and RSI should remain in the 50-70 bullish range over the next 12 months.
CounterBreakout setups near 52-week highs with a failed asymmetry gate are prone to sharp reversals once momentum buyers are exhausted.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FBIZ carries a strong 4-quarter earnings beat streak and attractive valuation metrics, but has already reached its price target, causing the V9 asymmetry gate to fail and leaving limited near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.6 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.31
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Insider at 7.5; weakest: Growth at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; the weakest are Growth at 4.2, Momentum at 4.3, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the July 23, 2026 report, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifUpside to target exceeds 10%, reversing the current -9.5% deficit.
- P3Asymmetry Gate Failure
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0, clearing the current -0.8 gate failure.
- P4Valuation And Quality Support
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x or Piotroski F-Score falls below 6/9.
- P5Breakout Momentum Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below the 50-day moving average, breaking the current golden-cross breakout structure.