Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
- ▸Attractively valued
FBIZ · Why this verdict
Why First Business Financial Servic (FBIZ) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Business Financial Services is a profitable regional bank with a 4/4 earnings beat streak, strong margins (33%) and attractive valuation (forward P/E 10.4x), but the price of $72.43 is 5.3% above the $68.56 analyst target and 1.8% from its 52-week high ahead of earnings in 5 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 14%, most recently $1.84 in July 2026. Bull case | EPS should beat estimates again at the 2026-10-29 report and stay above $1.60 per quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterAfter four straight beats expectations are higher, and a stock near its 52-week high has little room for an inline quarter. | ||
Margins are strong at 33% with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and ROE well above peers. Quality breakdown | Net margin should stay above 28% and the F-Score at or above 7 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.9 and the revenue figures diverge from yfinance by about 30%, so reported profitability is uncertain. | ||
Quarterly revenue grew from $59.5M in March 2025 to $65.0M in June 2026, and the growth rank is 6.1 among peers. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should exceed $66M within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe data carries a revenue discrepancy flag: filing-based revenue differs from yfinance by 28% to 33% across five quarters, so growth rates may be unreliable. | ||
At $72.43 the stock is 5.3% above its $68.56 analyst target and 1.8% from its 52-week high, leaving 6.8% downside to the stop and a negative reward-to-risk. Upside pct | Analysts should raise targets above $72.43, or price consolidate toward the 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterGolden cross, rising OBV and strong momentum (7.4) show a breakout that targets often lag behind. | ||
Earnings beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 14%, most recently $1.84 in July 2026.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again at the 2026-10-29 report and stay above $1.60 per quarter.
CounterAfter four straight beats expectations are higher, and a stock near its 52-week high has little room for an inline quarter.
Margins are strong at 33% with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and ROE well above peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin should stay above 28% and the F-Score at or above 7 over 12 months.
CounterReturn on assets scores only 0.9 and the revenue figures diverge from yfinance by about 30%, so reported profitability is uncertain.
Quarterly revenue grew from $59.5M in March 2025 to $65.0M in June 2026, and the growth rank is 6.1 among peers.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed $66M within 12 months.
CounterThe data carries a revenue discrepancy flag: filing-based revenue differs from yfinance by 28% to 33% across five quarters, so growth rates may be unreliable.
At $72.43 the stock is 5.3% above its $68.56 analyst target and 1.8% from its 52-week high, leaving 6.8% downside to the stop and a negative reward-to-risk.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets above $72.43, or price consolidate toward the 200-day average.
CounterGolden cross, rising OBV and strong momentum (7.4) show a breakout that targets often lag behind.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 9.3 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $47,381 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.80
Upside
-5.8%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 8.0 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Value at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.1, Sentiment at 5.4, and Momentum at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.80 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Margins Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 33%.
- P3Steady Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $60M from the current $65.0M.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price drops to $69.09 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $72.43.